IntelBrief: Despite Assad Normalization, Syria Remains a Powder Keg

Bottom Line Up Front

• Protests and violence that erupted in parts of Syria in mid-August indicate that the Assad regime’s normalization with the rest of the Arab world has failed to help stabilize the country.
• Protesters in southern Syria are reacting to deteriorating economic conditions as well as the regime’s repression and brutal suppression of the on-again, off-again armed rebellion, which began in 2011.
• U.S. commanders in eastern Syria are trying to end fighting between two factions of allied forces that cooperate with the U.S. against Islamic State and help contain Iranian influence in Syria.
• Russia’s war in Ukraine renders Moscow less able to help Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s government fend off a major rebellion, but Iran remains committed to defending the Assad regime no matter what.