INTELBRIEF
September 13, 2023
IntelBrief: Iran Taking Steps to Avoid Crisis Over its Nuclear Program, Agrees to Prisoner Swap with U.S.
Bottom Line Up Front
- Iran has modestly slowed its uranium enrichment activities in an apparent effort to avoid a crisis with the United States or regional actors over its nuclear intent and capabilities.
- The slowdown of Iran’s nuclear activities is consistent with reports that Iran seeks informal understandings with the United States – including the announcement this week of a finalized agreement on a U.S.-Iran prisoner swap – to lower tensions.
- Iran can still produce enough fissile material for one nuclear weapon within two weeks, and it continues to deny international nuclear monitors unfettered access to its facilities.
- Taking into account Iran’s recent nuclear concessions, the international community is likely to avoid outright condemnation of Iran’s continuing violations or recommend additional sanctions on Iran’s economy.