IntelBrief: Is Slovakia’s Election a Harbinger of Eroding European Support for Ukraine?

Bottom Line Up Front

• A left-wing, pro-Russian populist party won Slovakia’s parliamentary elections last weekend, with the party’s leader beginning talks to establish a coalition government.
• Former Prime Minister Robert Fico and his Smer-SSD party have pledged to cease all military support to Ukraine and block any potential NATO bid for Ukraine – moves that would upend Slovakia’s previously staunch support for Ukraine.
• Fico’s pro-Russian rhetoric reflects a broader coalescing – even if for short-term gain and mere pragmatism – of the far-right and far-left in Europe, capitalizing on the cost-of-living crisis and growing fatigue over the war in Ukraine.
• Despite concerns over Slovakia’s support for Ukraine and potential alignment with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, analysts have predicted that moderating forces in the likely governing coalition, as well as Slovakia’s depleted military arsenal, will temper the direst prognostications.