IntelBrief: The Security Implications of Historic Levels of Migration at the U.S. Southwest Border

Bottom Line Up Front

• For the third straight year, a sharp increase in migrant and refugee crossings at the U.S. southern border has reached record-setting levels, with nearly 2.5 million encounters.
• Economic and political upheaval, poverty, widespread and cyclical violence, and repression – all exacerbated by climate change – are among the primary drivers leading migrants to attempt the perilous journey to the U.S. southern border.
• The Darién Gap, a sliver of jungle that is the only land route from South America into Central America and ultimately the U.S., has seen thousands of migrants crossing the treacherous terrain, generating millions of dollars in profits for entrepreneurs and organized criminal groups.
• The lack of regularized legal pathways has increased the demand for smugglers and human traffickers to help migrants cross the border, increasing profits for criminal networks and heightening the potential risk of terrorists entering the country undocumented.