IntelBrief: Elections Bring Venezuela One Step Closer to Thawing U.S. Relations

Bottom Line Up Front

• The Venezuelan government allowed the opposition to hold its first primary elections in over a decade last weekend in exchange for a partial lifting of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s energy, gold, and financial sectors.
• An anti-Maduro, free-market conservative handily won the primary, though hopes for Venezuelan democracy or improved U.S. relations will hinge on whether the government allows her to run against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in the general election.
• While U.S. sanctions have failed to oust Maduro from power, they have deteriorated an already devastated Venezuelan economy.
• By recalibrating relations with Venezuela and reducing pressure on the Venezuelan economy, the United States also hopes to tackle one of the drivers of its own migration crisis and bring down global energy prices.