IntelBrief: Hand on the Trigger: Iranian Proxies Threaten to Escalate the Conflict with Israel

Bottom Line Up Front

• As Israel prepares for a possible full-scale ground incursion into Gaza, there is much speculation over a possible Iranian response, including the potential deployment of its proxy forces to escalate the conflict further.
• Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Kata’ib Hezbollah, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba stand out as the groups most likely to become involved of the nearly 50 other Iraqi Shia militias that operate under Iran’s umbrella.
• If Hezbollah and Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militia become further involved in the conflict, there may be more cross-border raids relying on small cells of well-trained fighters with a full arsenal of rockets.
• Iranian proxy activities will be a bellwether for Tehran’s intentions, and likely motivated Washington’s deployment of two carrier strike groups and a rapid reaction force to the eastern Mediterranean.