IntelBrief: No End in Sight, Hard Questions Ahead for Ukraine and Allies

Bottom Line Up Front

• The disappointments of a slow, grinding counteroffensive are just one factor threatening the long-term prospects for Ukraine’s Western support.
• Even at its most active positions, the counteroffensive has only pushed a handful of kilometers through the frontlines after more than four months.
• While it is unlikely that the loss of support from any single European state – whose support is currently at risk as war fatigue sets in – would dramatically change prospects for the Ukrainian military, U.S. political divisions and dysfunction could strongly diminish the durability of the pro-Ukraine coalition.
• Partnered with a rudderless U.S. House of Representatives, the Biden administration is attempting to push more aid for Ukraine by bundling it with a weapons deal supporting Israel’s war against Hamas.