IntelBrief: What is Egypt’s Role in the Future of Gaza?

Bottom Line Up Front

• Egypt’s proximity to and historical relationship with the Gaza Strip, as well as its relations with Israel, make Cairo pivotal to a stable outcome of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
• Egyptian control over the Rafah crossing, the only Gaza outlet still open, has put Egypt’s leadership at the center of efforts to protect the Gaza population from the effects of the war.
• Although publicly urging a ceasefire, Egypt has a history of animosity with Hamas and would privately welcome a successor Gaza government that rejects political violence and commits to negotiations with Israel.
• Cairo does not want a large influx of Gaza refugees into the Sinai Peninsula because of uncertainty over whether and when the refugees might go back to their homes.