IntelBrief: Russia’s Africa Summit and Moscow’s Continued Quest to Project Influence in the Global South

Bottom Line Up Front

• Russia is hosting its second summit with African nations this week in St. Petersburg, with several important items on the agenda, including grain supplies and the future of the Wagner group on the continent.
• Many African nations initially sided with Russia over Ukraine, reflecting a serious investment by the Kremlin in advancing Russian influence throughout the continent, though some of those nations are now second-guessing Moscow after suffering from second-order consequences of the war, including food insecurity.
• While Putin has publicly suggested that Russia would replace grain shortfalls by donating Russian stockpiles to African countries, many expect Moscow to use the summit to attempt to broker bilateral deals, circumventing the United Nations and, in the process, making African states dependent on Russia.
• Moscow is attempting to highlight the Russia-African Summit as proof of ‘normalcy’ and diplomacy as usual between the Kremlin and countries throughout the Global South.