IntelBrief: Do Spanish Elections Reveal Anything About the Momentum of Europe’s Far-Right?

Bottom Line Up Front

• After a snap general election in Spain on Sunday failed to produce a decisive winner – none of the parties won enough seats to form a parliamentary majority – there is no clear path to forming a government and the country is now facing political deadlock and uncertainty.
• Rather than becoming a ‘kingmaker’ as many polls predicted, the far-right populist party Vox underperformed, failing to achieve enough votes to form a governing coalition with the conservative party and losing parliamentary seats from the prior election in 2019.
• Vox had gained momentum in regional and municipal elections in May and has struck deals to govern in several regions and cities, capitalizing on issues around immigration, separatist movements, and ‘green’ policies.
• Although Vox’s performance on Sunday has displayed the far-right’s potential limitations in the liberal bastion of Spain, dismissal of the European far-right’s ability to capitalize on voter’s grievances and prognostications of its waning momentum have often proven premature.