IntelBrief: Was the NATO Summit in Vilnius a Success, or Did it Fall Short of Expectations?

Bottom Line Up Front

• Sweden is poised to join NATO after Türkiye withdrew its veto threat just ahead of NATO’s annual summit this week in Vilnius, Lithuania.
• Türkiye’s course correction came after receiving positive responses from the U.S. regarding sales of F-16s to Ankara, while Erdogan’s demand for an improved relationship with the European Union will be more cumbersome and take time.
• Ukraine’s future NATO membership remains murky, with the alliance offering new security guarantees short of membership, with a possible future invitation if certain benchmarks were achieved over time, drawing a rebuke from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.
• As France agreed to supply Ukraine with new long-range missiles and a group of NATO members formed an F-16 training program for Ukrainian pilots, the United States faces criticism from human rights groups over its pledged cluster munitions, which are banned by over 120 countries due to civilian casualty risks.