December 21, 2023

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IntelBrief: Negotiations Over Reviving Hostage Deal Offers Rare Hope in Gaza Crisis

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Since the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages last week, there has been growing pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to return to the negotiating table with Hamas to revive talks on another hostage deal and accompanying temporary cessation of hostilities. On Monday, Hamas released a new video showing three hostages—elderly Israeli men, 79, 80, and 84 years old, respectively—that the group has been holding since the initial October 7 attack into southern Israel. Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) also released a video that featured one elderly hostage as well as a 49-year-old. The videos may be indicative of the framework that Hamas and PIJ hope to negotiate towards, focusing on elderly men but not any Israeli military personnel, including female soldiers, whom Hamas considers to be in a separate category from female non-soldiers. Prior to the initial truce and hostage deal that Israel and Hamas agreed to in late November and even extended for several days beyond the original deadline, Hamas also released a video of two female Israeli hostages who were subsequently released. Although no formal deal has been agreed to as of yet, it does appear that both Israel and Hamas are open to moving forward with a second deal if both sides can agree to the parameters. The momentum comes on the heels of a recent meeting in Warsaw, Poland between Mossad Chief David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and CIA Director William Burns.

Senior Hamas political leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal, were in Egypt this week to discuss a possible hostage deal that will likely be far more complex than the previous iteration. Egyptian officials claim that Israel wants 40 more hostages released—a group that the Israelis claim are the remaining women and children—as well as elderly male hostages who are in need of urgent medical care. In return, Israel is indicating that it is prepared to allow further humanitarian aid into Gaza and pause air and ground operations for one week. Although negotiations over the details are continuing to occur, Hamas has made it clear that it refuses to negotiate under fire and will only agree to a deal after a ceasefire has been implemented and aerial surveillance is curtailed. 

The IDF has also recognized the difficulty of hostage rescue with special forces, given the complexity of Gaza’s labyrinth-like tunnel system. The most optimistic scenarios paint a picture that includes a ceasefire of several weeks, which, if adhered to by both sides, could potentially lead the IDF to begin pulling back from parts of northern Gaza. Some in the Israeli government have chafed at the notion of what they see as an arbitrary timetable to conclude military operations. Despite the IDF’s stated objective of eradicating Hamas, a goal that few military analysts believe is feasible, Israeli leaders have suggested that operations will continue for at least a few more months, though this will put significant pressure on Israel’s economy, given the current operational tempo of reservists who have been activated and are preparing to backfill IDF troops that are currently deployed in Gaza.

The contours of a second hostage-for-prisoner swap are complicated by the fact that some of the individuals for whom Hamas is seeking to exchange hostages have been jailed in Israel and convicted of terrorist attacks. Moreover, this next round of exchanges may not adhere to the same three-to-one ratio of prisoners-to-hostages that characterized the first hostage swap. Within Israel, there is pressure on the Netanyahu government from multiple sides. The families of the hostages have been vocal about the importance of getting their family members home at any cost. Meanwhile, particularly among the far-right elements of Israeli society, there is a growing cacophony of resistance to any deal that exchanges an imprisoned Hamas member who has been involved in violence or deadly plots. Hamas’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, was himself one of 1,027 Palestinian prisoners freed in exchange for captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011. That Sinwar returned to Gaza and is believed to be the mastermind behind the October 7 attack has raised questions within Israel about the wisdom of releasing experienced Hamas fighters, although, at this stage in the conflict, Israel is essentially left to choose the best of several suboptimal alternatives. Getting both Israel and Hamas to agree upon a framework for another deal will remain a major challenge despite the indefatigable efforts of Egyptian, Qatari, and American interlocutors. There have been numerous discrepancies in earlier exchanges over the lists of names of Israeli hostages provided by Israel versus the list of the names given by Hamas.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog said on Tuesday that Israel is willing, at least in principle, to enter into a pause in fighting for the delivery of humanitarian aid if Hamas releases more hostages, but stressed that the “responsibility lies with the other side,” meaning Hamas. U.S. pressure does seem to be having an impact, as Washington and Doha help craft a framework for further engagement. The components include the parameters of a ceasefire, meaning the details on the hostages that will be involved in any swap, as well as a second pillar focused on humanitarian aid. Egypt is playing a more significant role in the negotiations this time around and the UN is asking the Egyptians to open the Karam Abu Salem (Kerem Shalom) border crossing, which will allow for a greater quantity of aid to move into Gaza, since this crossing is more designed for the cross-border movement of trucks than the Rafah crossing. The humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate rapidly, with an estimated 1.87 million Gazans—out of a total of 2.2 million—internally displaced by the conflict. Food and clean water are scarce and there are concerns of a potential cholera outbreak. With the Palestinian civilian death toll approaching a staggering 20 thousand, many of those reported dead women and children, there is growing international pressure on the Israeli military to avoid civilian casualties, something the United States has called a “moral duty and strategic imperative.” The Biden administration, along with key European allies such as Germany and the United Kingdom, has also been more vocal publicly in recent days about the dire need for a sustainable ceasefire.