IntelBrief: Border Dispute between Venezuela and Guyana Continues to Simmer

Bottom Line Up Front

• Guyanese President Irfaan Ali and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro met late last week in an attempt to diffuse escalation of a long-simmering territorial dispute over Guyana’s mineral-rich Essequibo region.
• The discovery of large quantities of oil off the coast of Essequibo suggests Venezuela’s vote to annex the territory may be an attempt to bring in new revenue for its faltering economy and serve as a nationalist distraction ahead of its presidential elections next year.
• The escalation is the latest border dispute that had, until recently, received little international attention despite its potential to spiral into a larger conflict, in part due to the significant economic stakes.
• The historic continuity of the territorial dispute and Maduro’s apparent need to distract his population in the lead-up to next year’s election, coupled with global competition for resources, indicate that the issue will likely continue – even if it stays below the level of a full-scale conflict.