IntelBrief: Iran Taking Steps to Avoid Crisis Over its Nuclear Program, Agrees to Prisoner Swap with U.S.

Bottom Line Up Front

• Iran has modestly slowed its uranium enrichment activities in an apparent effort to avoid a crisis with the United States or regional actors over its nuclear intent and capabilities.
• The slowdown of Iran’s nuclear activities is consistent with reports that Iran seeks informal understandings with the United States – including the announcement this week of a finalized agreement on a U.S.-Iran prisoner swap – to lower tensions.
• Iran can still produce enough fissile material for one nuclear weapon within two weeks, and it continues to deny international nuclear monitors unfettered access to its facilities.
• Taking into account Iran’s recent nuclear concessions, the international community is likely to avoid outright condemnation of Iran’s continuing violations or recommend additional sanctions on Iran’s economy.