IntelBrief: The Sahel Continues to Struggle with a Surge of Jihadist Terrorism

Bottom Line Up Front

• The French withdrawal from Burkina Faso amid pressure from the Burkinabe junta is likely to lead to a worsening security situation and further erosion of democracy in the country.
• Burkina Faso’s government has stated that Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group will not replace French special forces, but suspicions linger that Russian “trainers” may still be employed along with Russian military support to the junta.
• An attack by Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) that killed more than 50 Burkinabe soldiers last month demonstrates that jihadist groups have not been pacified in the country or the region as a whole.
• Côte d’Ivoire will become West Africa’s counterterrorism hub and host French troops, which will likely still be insufficient to stem the rising tide of violence throughout West Africa.