IntelBrief: Russia Broadens Its Reach into Sahel

Bottom Line Up Front

• Russia is actively seeking political influence in the Sahel through ostensible support for counter-insurgency efforts amid the drawdown of the longstanding French counterterrorism forces in that region.
• Russian has capitalized on cold U.S. relationships with Sahelian states that are confronting challenges in democratic governance in its attempt to create a new Russian-led security order in the region.
• Russia exerts military influence in the Sahel largely through the Wagner Group private military company operating alongside Sahelian soldiers, but this has not led to counter-insurgency success and, in contrast, has often exacerbated insecurity.
• While France appears unlikely to regain influence in the Sahel, a combination of tactful diplomacy and military support to meet the Sahelian states’ actual needs could allow the United States to become a preferred partner, especially if Russian support proves underwhelming.