IntelBrief: Political Crisis Adds to Lebanon’s Difficulties

Bottom Line Up Front

• President Michel Aoun left office on October 30 as his term ended, placing governance in the hands of a divided caretaker government with limited powers and legitimacy.
• Lebanese political leaders have been unable to agree on a successor, in part because of sharp divisions over the power wielded by the pro-Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah.
• A new government influenced by Hezbollah would have difficulty attracting international and regional financial support.
• The October agreement on a sea border with Israel represents a potential bright spot for Lebanon’s economic future.