May 8, 2024

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IntelBrief: All Eyes on Gaza as Ceasefire Deal Remains Uncertain

AP Photo/Ramez Habboub

An announcement on Monday that Hamas had accepted the terms of a ceasefire deal led to a temporary bout of celebration in Gaza. However, Palestinians desperate for an end to the war, had their hopes dashed as Israel later claimed the deal Hamas agreed to was not one that the Israelis had even seen, much less signed off on. The proposed deal is reportedly backed by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, as trust between the Biden administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government continues to fray. Israel sent negotiators to Cairo yesterday to continue the talks, while simultaneously conducting strikes in eastern Rafah. Netanyahu claimed that the Israeli war cabinet had voted unanimously to move forward with the assault on Rafah, something the Biden administration has been struggling to prevent.

Israeli tanks entered Rafah yesterday, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) seeking to take control of the Palestinian side of the border crossing. The IDF will attempt to control supply lines into Gaza. The UN warned of a potential collapse of the flow of aid to Gazans from the closure of Rafah and Kerem Shalom, the other main crossing into the Strip. The timing of Rafah’s closure could exacerbate an already desperate situation. The UN has stated that northern Gaza is currently experiencing a “full blown famine,” with hundreds of thousands facing catastrophic levels of hunger. Moreover, the devastation is not confined to the north, and UN officials have warned that the famine is “moving its way south.”

Last week, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that it had passed the halfway mark on construction of a temporary floating pier and is expected to be completed in the coming weeks. Once the pier is completed, it will initially be able to deliver an estimated 90 truckloads of aid per day, eventually scaling up to provide upwards of 150 truckloads of aid per day once fully operational. The IDF has been pushing to evacuate civilians from Rafah and once the pier begins operating, Gazan civilians may be pushed to northern Gaza, providing the IDF with maneuver space to launch a more intense attack on Rafah.

The IDF will focus its operation on Rafah with the objective of destroying Hamas’s vast tunnel network. This will be an extremely precarious urban warfare assault, as subterranean warfare remains among the most challenging types of military operations. There is the additional challenge of the hostages, believed to be co-located with some of Hamas’s leadership, which the Israelis consider high value targets. This includes Hamas military commander Yahya Sinwar.

The contours of the ceasefire deal are still emerging and being negotiated, but the Associated Press reported that any deal would start with a limited hostage release and at least a partial troop pullback by the IDF. Moreover, both sides would work toward establishing a “permanent calm” that would be a prelude to a full hostage release and ultimately more complete Israeli troop withdrawal.

Tensions have continued to run high between Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden throughout the conflict. Israeli officials commented following Hamas’s acceptance of the ceasefire deal that the Biden administration knew about the proposed deal but did not brief Israel before Hamas responded. Israeli officials claimed to be surprised to see many new elements that had not previously been included in the proposal. Two Israeli officials have echoed the sentiment that “Israel got played” by the U.S. and other mediating entities, serving as another blow to the relationship between Israel and the U.S. A statement from a U.S. official mentioned that Biden’s aim is to "ensure that an initial six-week ceasefire would be built into something more enduring. The agreement lays out three phases for this purpose and it would be our aim to see all three phases completed with all the hostages returned to their families."

While Netanyahu's administration has maintained a resolute stance on the proposed ceasefire agreement, it has encountered growing criticism from many Israeli citizens, including family members of the hostages. These families, much like Gazans who were hopeful at the news of a potential ceasefire, are eager to see an end to the violence and the safe return of their loved ones. Nightly protests outside Netanyahu's residence and across Tel Aviv have escalated, becoming increasingly aggressive and even violent. In a statement to the Netanyahu government, many families of the hostages pled with their government to reconsider this agreement. While Netanyahu is indeed facing significant pressure from the public to agree to a ceasefire deal, he is also contending with strong opposition from his extreme right-wing coalition partners. These partners prioritize continuing military operations in Gaza over securing the release of hostages, creating a complex political dilemma for Netanyahu.