June 28, 2024

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IntelBrief: Northern Front Anything but Calm as Concerns Grow Over Israel-Hezbollah War

AP Photo/Susan Walsh

Earlier this week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited Washington to meet with top U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to discuss possible routes towards de-escalation on Israel’s northern border to avoid opening a second front. The meetings also discussed the war in Gaza, particularly efforts to achieve a ceasefire and the return of Israeli hostages, as well as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with the U.S. objective to allow more aid into the region and minimize harm to civilians. Blinken apparently pressed Gallant on the necessity for Israel to devise a workable political endgame for the war in Gaza, with some consideration given to the possible consequences of ending the fighting, which could positively impact efforts to reduce tensions with another member of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance,’ Lebanese Hezbollah.

Last week, U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut, holding diplomatic meetings with Lebanese leaders and some of Hezbollah’s allies in Lebanon’s government in hopes of minimizing the fighting over the border between Lebanon and Israel. However, Hezbollah appears to be holding a hard line, insisting that a ceasefire be reached in Gaza before the group suspends cross-border attacks. Meanwhile, Israel continues to target Hezbollah senior leaders with strikes, continuing the tit-for-tat attacks that each side has perpetuated since shortly after October 7. A video released by Hezbollah recently demonstrated the capabilities of one of its reconnaissance drones, broadcasting footage of the Israeli city of Haifa, in a not-so-subtle message to Israel that, if the conflict heats up, Hezbollah could cause significant damage to Israeli cities with its arsenal of over 150,000 missiles and rockets. Many Israelis are worried that the qualitative and quantitative aspects of Hezbollah's arsenal could overwhelm the Iron Dome missile defense system.

The situation requires delicate diplomacy as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists on the complete destruction of Hamas to please his right-wing constituents and party members and fulfill a promise he has continued to reiterate throughout the fighting, even as many within the Israeli national security establishment find the objective quixotic. At the same time, Hezbollah promises to escalate the conflict if the survival of Hamas is in danger. As such, there is an aggressive stalemate with ongoing mutual deterrence efforts. Before visiting Beirut, Hochstein visited Israel following the release of a video by Netanyahu claiming that the U.S. is withholding military aid from Israel, an allegation that Hochstein denied in his meeting with the prime minister. Netanyahu's accusations have further drawn the ire of some in the Biden administration, including the President himself.

The fighting on the Israel-Lebanon border has increased in recent weeks, with the “rules of the game” for more quotidian border skirmishes now in question, evidenced by Hezbollah’s aggressive attacks and Israel’s equally aggressive responses. Lebanese Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has issued a stark warning to Israel, claiming there would be “no restraint and no rules and no ceiling” to Hezbollah’s actions if war does break out. Hundreds of rockets and drones were fired at Israeli military sites in the past two weeks, making up a large portion of Hezbollah’s over 2,000 strikes on Israel since the war in Gaza began.

When the war first started, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) considered preemptive strikes on Hezbollah but were swiftly discouraged by the U.S.; this delayed the escalation that is now seen, but tensions have been running high since October 7. Tens of thousands of civilians living on both sides of the Lebanon-Israel border have been displaced, with near-daily strikes and decades-long tensions eliminating hope for peace as many civilians insist it is simply a decision "between war now or war later." In comments recently to the Associated Press, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. C.Q. Brown cautioned Israel to “think about the second order of effect of any type of operation into Lebanon,” echoing broader concerns within the U.S. national security establishment of a widening war in the region.

Hezbollah is the most sophisticated non-state actor in the world, with battle-hardened fighters, an impressive stockpile of weapons, and consistent and robust Iranian backing. In 2006, during the 34-day-long Israel-Hezbollah war, the result was largely inconclusive, only further shaping the “rules of the game” to better interpret the signaling from each side and minimize escalation with reformulated “red lines” serving as tripwires for conflict. Both sides have largely abided by the murky rules, with violence flaring at various points. As the war in Gaza drags on, the chances of miscalculation invoking a war that neither side desires increase. There are growing concerns that if Hezbollah and Israel escalate to all-out war, Iran may involve itself directly in the conflict, resulting in even broader devastation and the possibility of U.S. involvement, a nightmare scenario for the Middle East.

To complicate the matter further, many of the countries involved in these diplomatic discussions have elections looming; the U.S. presidential election is in November, Iran is holding a special election in just a few days to replace their recently deceased President Ibrahim Raisi, and France is also heading into the first round of its snap parliamentary election this week. There are large numbers of French nationals in southern Lebanon, where much of the increased fire exchange has occurred. As such, France is dedicated to the peace process in the region and offered to create a working group with Israel and the U.S. to avoid a war, which Gallant rejected. With these elections ongoing, the stance of each country and their respective administrations could shift the peace process drastically; some analysts claim there are only six months to reach a ceasefire before the U.S. presidential election has the potential to derail diplomatic efforts. Germany and the Netherlands joined Canada, North Macedonia, and Kuwait, urging their citizens to leave Lebanon. According to Politico, some European countries believe that a war between Israel and Hezbollah could kick off within days, while the U.S. intelligence community has offered a more conservative assessment.

At present, U.S. officials are attempting to convince Hamas to accept the ceasefire proposal from Israel while pushing Israel to do more to protect Palestinian civilians in the conflict and encouraging a practical diplomatic resolution that allows Lebanese and Israeli civilians to return to their homes in the north. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant stated that the conversations were beneficial and spurred progress on many accounts, including ammunition supplies, post-war plans for Gaza, and the desired ability for Israelis from the north to return home once a peaceful resolution with Hezbollah is reached. But in the meantime, tensions continue to run high, and ample opportunities exist for miscommunication or miscalculation that could spark a broader and more intense conflagration between Israel and Hezbollah along the northern border.