June 26, 2024

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IntelBrief: Climate Impacts Destabilizing the Middle East During Global Heat Wave

AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool

Saudi Arabia has reported that over 1,300 people have died during this year’s Hajj pilgrimage, the annual pilgrimage made by Muslims to the holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia. One of the five pillars of Islam, Hajj is required by every able-bodied, financially capable Muslim at least once in their lives. Thus, millions of Muslims make the journey to participate in the five-day rituals each year. However, this year, temperatures in Mecca climbed as high as 125 degrees Fahrenheit, a temperature that humans cannot withstand without proper air conditioning.

Due to the high cost of the journey and the limited amount of permits issued by the Saudi government, hundreds of thousands of pilgrims arrive using tourist visas obtained through unlicensed travel operators. These unregistered participants often lack access to essential amenities, as well as air-conditioned tour buses and tents, which are available to those who register through official channels. As a result, many unregistered participants are left exposed to the extreme heat. According to the Saudi Health Ministry, 83 percent of those who died this year were unregistered.

The high death toll from this year’s Hajj underscores the region’s acute vulnerability to climate change. According to a 2021 study by the American Meteorological Society, the Gulf region is one of the regions most threatened, with temperatures warming at a rate 50 percent higher than the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. The same study reported that if the trend of rising temperatures persists, “human survival in the region will be impossible without continuous access to air conditioning.” In addition to the heat, the changing temperatures have produced various climate hazards such as flash floods, prolonged droughts, and sandstorms, the latter of which Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has estimated costs the broader Middle East and North Africa region $13 billion annually.

The impacts of climate change and extreme weather conditions will continue to disproportionately impact vulnerable and marginalized populations throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), including migrants and refugees, women and girls, lower-income citizens, and workers in the informal, agricultural, and tourist sectors, among others. According to the World Bank, increasing exposure of women and girls to climate-related hazards, such as extreme heat or water scarcity, further drives gender-based violence in the MENA region. Moreover, increasing extreme weather patterns will inordinately jeopardize the lives and livelihoods of impoverished populations, with small farmers and women typically hit hardest by the loss of agricultural productivity due to natural disasters.

Migrant workers in the Middle East – an estimated 10 million of whom reside in Saudi Arabia according to Amnesty International – are particularly vulnerable to climate change and increasing temperatures. Migrant workers in Saudi Arabia, as in other parts of the Gulf region, are often subject to substandard living and working conditions, exploitation, and abuse by their employers or recruitment agents, including passport confiscation, failing to pay wages, illegal recruitment fees, and debt bondage.

Although Saudi Arabia has stated that it has abolished the kafala system – where workers are tied to their employer – employers still wield the power to revoke or not renew work permits, which can lead to workers being deported. Most migrant workers have to pay incredibly large fees to recruitment agents for their jobs in the Gulf, yet many are reportedly deported before they can pay off the costs of the fees.

The lack of legal protections, access to healthcare, and education for migrant workers makes them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and extreme weather. The often physically demanding and dangerous working conditions faced by migrants in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, such as in construction, expose them to elevated levels of air pollution, heat stress, and various other climate-change related risks. These risks are compounded by long working hours, low pay, and inadequate safety and health training to mitigate the risks of climate change while working in these jobs.

Climate-related risks to migrant workers will be exacerbated and increase with the almost inevitability of Saudia Arabia hosting the World Cup in 2034; it was the only country to place a bid. The Gulf state will rely on tens of thousands of low-wage migrant workers to construct new transport networks, hotels, stadiums, and training grounds – all projects that will likely place these workers in conditions of extreme weather and heat.

Further, experts have warned that the food and water shortages resulting from climate-related hazards could bolster insurgent groups across the Gulf region. Already one of the world’s most drought prone regions, with around 60 percent of its population living in conditions with high or extreme water stress, the rapid temperature increase further compromises access to nutrition and hydration. If climate change continues at its current pace, as the World Bank has noted, agricultural losses could reduce household incomes in the region by billions. This economic strain, coupled with the existing food and water insecurity, could create an environment where insurgent groups thrive by offering basic necessities and financial incentives to vulnerable populations to win local support and recruit members. This tactic has been used extensively by al-Shabaab in Somalia and the Houthis in Yemen, underscoring how climate change serves as a threat multiplier.

In response to this threat, countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) are making significant strides in integrating sustainability into their national agendas, with both government and private sectors promoting renewable energy adoption, energy efficiency, and economic diversification. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has announced plans to generate 50 percent of its power from renewables by 2030 and plant 10 billion trees as part of its Vision 2030 plan.

Meanwhile, the UAE has committed to achieving Net Zero by 2050. Though not at the level of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain are also increasing investment in renewable energy and looking to meet more of their electricity needs with renewables. However, despite these efforts, significant obstacles persist due to water and food scarcity, migration pressures, and damaged infrastructure. Other challenges include relatively low renewable energy targets, continued heavy dependence on oil, and issues with corruption and the rule of law. As a result, the GCC’s progress has been slow, and experts warn that at their current pace, they are unlikely to meet their net zero targets in time. These challenges, coupled with the rapid pace of a changing climate, will leave more and more of the population exposed to extreme weather conditions.