June 13, 2024

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IntelBrief: Sudan Crisis Fades from the Headlines Even as the Conflict Intensifies

AP Photo

Fighting between rival forces in Sudan continues, with the conflict fading from the headlines, relegated to a back-burner issue on the international agenda, eclipsed by the ongoing war in Gaza and Ukraine. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed “Hemedti” Dagalo, continue to trade blows in an attempt to gain the upper hand. The Sudanese population, meanwhile, has been caught in the crossfire as this nation of 60 million people struggles with famine and a severe humanitarian catastrophe.

The RSF is entrenched near Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, while the SAF maintains its headquarters in Port Sudan. This conflict has seen external intervention from a number of different countries, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran backing the SAF and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) backing the RSF, which has also received assistance from Russian mercenaries and Chadian Arab tribesmen. The RSF’s main priority target, at least at this stage of the conflict, is seizing control of El Fasher, a city in western Darfur that is a stronghold of the SAF. The city is also of strategic importance in terms of controlling trade routes from Libya and Chad. Civilians have repeatedly been killed in the fighting, with mounting casualties and collateral damage being reported.

U.S. special envoy for Sudan Tom Perriello painted an extremely dire picture of the status quo, commenting that “the worst-case scenario in Sudan is a 20-, 25-year version of Somalia on steroids.” This grim assessment still isn’t enough to raise Sudan higher on the international agenda, as peace talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia continue to sputter along. Without a mutually hurting stalemate, both the RSF and SAF are still confident that each can gain leverage over the other side, particularly with promises made by the coterie of patrons hoping to increase their own influence in the country.

There are also legitimate concerns about what could happen if the RSF is able to press its advantage in El Fasher, given the militia’s behavior elsewhere throughout Sudan, where its fighters have been accused of mass rape, torture, summary executions, and massacres. There will inevitably be spillover effects in surrounding countries, including Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR), which are already struggling with their own issues. Further chaos is only likely to erode the rule of law and promote the proliferation of illicit economies, where drugs, weapons, humans, and foreign terrorist fighters are smuggled and trafficked across borders with ease.

As the fighting and brutality in Sudan have shown no signs of abating, an attack on a village in Gezira state by the RSF last week reportedly left at least 150 people dead, according to activists. The attack was the largest in the string of several attacks by the RSF forces on small villages across central Sudan since December. At least 35 children were killed in the attack according to the UN’s Children’s Fund (UNICEF). The attack demonstrates the immense toll the conflict has wrought on the civilian population in Sudan and in the surrounding region.

Since the fighting began in April 2023, upwards of 150,000 people have been killed as a result, with over 9 million displaced. 25 million people in Sudan require humanitarian assistance. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a globally recognized hunger monitor, nearly 18 million people in Sudan are facing “high levels of acute food insecurity” – more than a third of the total population. The UN officials have warned that almost 5 million people in Sudan are close to famine. Aid groups have accused both the SAF and RSF of looting aid or blocking it from reaching areas where there is widespread starvation. The situation is so desperate that some refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) are eating dirt and leaves to survive, and hunger – rather than solely violence – is also displacing civilians as they attempt to find food sources.

Refugees and IDPs have reported ethnic cleansing and potential international crimes in Darfur, including systematic killings, violence, and sexual and gender-based violence, including rape. The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, issued a call on Tuesday for witnesses and information regarding the allegations, in order to aid an urgent investigation opened by the ICC into war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Darfur region. Khan stated that he was “extremely concerned about allegations of widespread international crimes being committed in el-Fasher and its surrounding areas.” ICC investigators have reportedly seen credible allegations of ethnically motivated attacks against the civilian population, including widespread rape and attacks on hospitals.