INTELBRIEF

December 30, 2014

TSG IntelBrief: The Next Battles of the Afghan Civil War

• After more than 13 years since the fall of the Taliban, the group remains the greatest threat to Afghanistan’s future prospects, despite unprecedented international effort and expenditure to oppose its resurgence

• Almost 26 years since the withdrawal of Soviet forces, Afghanistan remains in a state of civil war, as it battles to determine the character and future of the country

• The root causes of the insurgency remain as they were in 2001 and in 1989, though there have been tremendous tactical successes whose impacts have ebbed and flowed through the years

• While Afghan security services are suffering the brunt of the attacks, violence against civilians in 2014 has increased to the highest levels since 2009, with even worse prospects for 2015 as attacks move away from foreign bases and into population centers

• With continued international support, the Afghan people will continue their decades-long civil war against dissolution and extremism, but with new ‘weapons’ that provide guarded optimism but no guarantee.

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