Against the backdrop of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, as well as discussions held at the inaugural Global Summit on Terrorism and Political Violence hosted by The Soufan Center (TSC), TSC hosted a webinar on October 30, 2024, to examine the political violence threat landscape in the United States in the context of the upcoming presidential election, assess the risk of violence, and explore how state actors and violent extremists are capitalizing on and inflaming societal fissures to promulgate their narratives, advance their own agendas, interfere in the democratic process, and incite followers and others to violence.
As the nation approaches a pivotal election, the threat of domestic terrorism and political violence remains a significant concern. Nearly four years after the U.S. Capitol insurrection, societal polarization has only deepened, exacerbated by the spread of mis- and disinformation by state and nonstate actors. This escalating polarization poses an increased risk of violence toward vulnerable communities, including immigrants, Jewish and Muslim communities, and LGBTQ+ individuals, in addition to government officials and law enforcement. Violent extremist groups – such as white supremacists, neo-Nazis, accelerationists, militias, and anarchists – are actively spreading disinformation and conspiracy theories online to promote their propaganda, influence political leaders, and embed their narratives into mainstream political discourse.
These groups have also actively sought to leverage geopolitical events and developments, including the escalating war in the Middle East and Russia’s war in Ukraine, to radicalize and recruit new members and incite others to violence. Moreover, these groups have increased their activities – both online and offline – in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, leveraging public anxiety around the electoral outcome, its legitimacy, and the subsequent aftermath for their own purposes.
Introductory remarks: Ms. Michaela Millender, Research Analyst, The Soufan Center
Moderator: Dr. Colin P. Clarke, Senior Research Fellow, The Soufan Center
Speakers:
- Mr. Brian Jenkins, Senior Advisor to the President, RAND Corporation
- Dr. Julia Ebner, Leader of the Violent Extremism Lab, University of Oxford
- Dr. Michael Kenney, Director of the Matthew B. Ridgway Center and Professor of International Affairs, University of Pittsburg
- Mr. Jacob Ware, Research Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations