War Against the Cartels: Prospects and Perils for the Trump Administration’s Military-Led Campaign

 

It appears the United States may be preparing to start a major, military-led counterterrorism operation against several Mexican drug cartels, and perhaps also against some gangs in Venezuela and elsewhere throughout Latin America. U.S. President Donald Trump has reached the determination that the United States is now engaged in “armed conflict” with violent criminal organizations and drug cartels, which the Administration has rebranded as terrorist groups. 

We acknowledge and encourage action against the real threats posed by the cartels, but also caution against a military-led campaign. Instead, the United States should amplify its already robust partnered, law-enforcement-led operations. However, if the United States undertakes a military-led campaign, Washington should carefully consider strategic options and begin preparing for likely undesirable second- and third-order consequences. This Issue Brief focuses on those options and foreseeable consequences.

About the Authors

COLIN P. CLARKE

BEN CONNABLE

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