Research and Commentary

America Must Reclaim the Center Before Political Violence Becomes the Norm

On Wednesday morning, a gunman opened fire on an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention...

Will Syria and Israel Reach a Security Deal?

Rumors persist that a potential security agreement is nearing finalization between Israel and Syria, although...

Trump’s UN Speech Highlights His Worldview Amidst a Shifting International Order

Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump delivered remarks to the United Nations, further solidifying his efforts...

UN Facing Questions Over Its Impact as World Leaders Gather In New York City

As world leaders gather this week for the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), the mood...

Prospects for Diplomacy Dim as Israel Expands Its Gaza Offensive

As the second anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack approaches, U.S. and regional diplomats...

How Should State Actors Engage with Islamist Insurgencies?

Following the Taliban takeover of Kabul in the summer of 2021 and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham...

The Diminished Strategic Value of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”

For decades, Iranian leaders have built their strategic architecture around a network of mostly, but...

Israel and the Houthis Escalate

Since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, there have been periods of calm...

Qatar Hosts Emergency Summit to Convene Regional Countries in Response to Israeli Attack

An emergency summit of the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) convened in...

Israeli Strike on Doha Reverberates through the Region

Israel’s failed attempt to decapitate Hamas’ political leadership on Tuesday has called into question many...

War Against the Cartels: Prospects and Perils for the Trump Administration’s Military-Led Campaign

  It appears the United States may be preparing to start a major, military-led counterterrorism operation against several Mexican drug cartels, and perhaps also against som

TSC Insights: The Legacy and Evolution of Foreign Fighters in Syria

The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, following the launch of the “Deter Aggression” campaign by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied opposition factions, marke

A Roadmap to Criminal Justice Accountability for SGBV Linked to Terrorism

Since the emergence of the prevalent perpetration of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV)  by terrorist actors as a weapon of warfare, few individuals or groups have faced a

Accelerating Hate: The Impact of October 7 on Terrorism and Political Violence in the West

The horrific attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, fundamentally shifted the security posture of the Middle East, while also having severe humanitarian consequences and ripple ef

Great Power Competition In The Twenty-First Century

Rather than a new phenomenon, competition, and hence the possibility of conflict, between states – as well as cooperation – has existed as long as states have interacted. Wh

Identities Destroyed, Histories Revised: The Targeting of Cultural Heritage and Soft Targets by Illicit Actors

On May 27, 1993, a car bomb blasted through the side of the Uffizi Gallery in Florence, Italy, killing five and wounding around thirty others, and destroying hundreds of pricele

Operation Black Lion: Challenges That Lay Ahead of Somalia’s Second Phase of the Offensive

Following a series of clan uprisings against al-Shabaab in the central regions of the country, in August 2022 the federal government of Somalia, working alongside clan militias

Citizens for Leverage: Navigating State Hostage-Taking in a Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

A number of states today are unlawfully detaining foreign nationals within their criminal justice systems for use as foreign policy leverage. Often referred to as “hostage dip

TSC Insights: France’s Missed Moments In Mali

Why did France fail in Mali? French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to withdraw his country’s remaining troops from Mali in August 2022 followed a nearly decade-long mi

Wagner Group: The Evolution Of A Private Army

In an astonishing turn of events starting 23 June 2023, the Wagner Group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared all-out war on the Russian state, leading a convoy of mercenaries

TSC Insights: Will Elections Set Turkiye on a New Course?

  Among foreign policy watchers, TĂĽrkiye’s upcoming vote for president and parliament could be the most consequential election of 2023. TĂĽrkiye’s current leader, Rece

Form Over Function? Reviewing the UN Global Counterterrorism Strategy

In 2006, UN Member States did something unusual. Despite being unable to agree on a universal definition of terrorism, and having fought over whether terrorism truly had “root

How Far-Right Terrorists Choose Their Enemies

  The decision to attack two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand in March 2019 was an odd targeting choice. As part of a manifesto released shortly before the violence eru

Lessons Learned from the 1267 Sanctions Regime against Al-Qaeda and Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)

To fully understand what impact sanctions could have on violent far-right extremist groups it is essential to have a firm grasp on how sanctions have impacted other terrorist gr

Trends in Violent Far-Right Extremism

countries in countering the threat from the far-right terrorism, and build on that with relevant partners; and strengthen international cooperation to counter the narratives of

Comparing Violent Far-Right Terrorist Designations among Five Eyes Countries

This paper seeks to examine the array of terrorist designations undertaken by “Five-Eye” (FVEY) countries (i.e. Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the U

Lessons Learned from Listing Violent Far-Right Extremist Groups in Canada

In June 2019, Canada listed two violent far-right extremist groups as terrorist entities: Blood and Honour and Combat 18, the first listings of their kind in Canada. In February

Foreign Fighters, Volunteers, and Mercenaries: Non-State Actors and Narratives in Ukraine

When Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia’s unprovoked military invasion of Ukraine was launched to pursue the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine, it evoked a le

Promoting Democracy and Security in Africa: Don’t Forget Cities

Speaking in Abuja last fall, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken implored African governments to enact reforms in response to their citizens’ demands for better governance.

A Perfect Storm: Insurrection, Incitement, And The Violent Far-Right Movement

The Capitol Insurrection in the United States on January 6, 2021, sent shockwaves around the world. From London to Canberra, and Ottawa to Auckland, millions watched as a mob of

The Road to 9/11 and the Dangers Ahead

Twenty years ago, in the fall of 2001, having already spent years chasing Osama bin Laden, I found myself near Kabul, standing in one of the al-Qaeda leader’s safehouses—or

Diminished, but not Defeated: The Evolution of al-Qaeda Since September 11, 2001

Over the past twenty years, al-Qaeda has proven to be resilient and adaptive in its efforts to survive the Global War on Terror (GWOT). Twenty years after the attacks of Septemb

Bringing Terrorists to Justice: Prosecuting ISIL War Crimes and Terrorism

In his final briefing to the United Nations Security Council in May 2021, the Special Adviser and Head of the United Nations Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Cri

Countering Terrorist Financing: Lessons Learned for Tackling Far-Right Terrorism

In a post-9/11 world, the international community has devoted significant attention and resources to countering the financing of terrorist groups. For the most part, over the pa

Countering Terrorist Narratives & Strategic Communications: Lessons Learned For Tackling Far-Right Terrorism

In the two decades following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the international community has largely focused on countering the terrorist threat posed by groups like

Terrorism and Counterterrorism in Southeast Asia: Emerging Trends and Dynamics

In the last three years, Indonesia and the southern Philippines have seen something new: women carrying out suicide bombings – some with their husbands, some with their childr

The Decade of Defiance & Resistance: Reflections On Arab Revolutionary Uprisings And Responses From 2010 – 2020

The dynamics fostered by the wars and revolutions plaguing many Arab states today represent the most consequential national transformations since World War I, culminating in a p

Quantifying The Q Conspiracy: A Data-Driven Approach to Understanding the Threat Posed by QAnon

A May 2019 intelligence bulletin from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Phoenix office labeled conspiracy theories as a domestic terrorism threat for the first time.

A Way Forward With Iran? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy

Any discussion of a Biden administration strategy on Iran must begin with an analysis of how previous U.S. administrations have approached the threat posed by Iran. From the ver

The Atomwaffen Division: The Evolution of the White Supremacy Threat

The Atomwaffen Division (AWD) is a dangerous neo-Nazi extremist network with a rapidly growing international footprint. While AWD has roots in the United States and became notor

Inside The Russian Imperial Movement: Practical Implications of U.S. Sanctions

Over the past several years, high-profile terrorist attacks by violent white supremacist extremists have gained worldwide attention and thrust the movement onto the front page o

The Nexus between Human Security and Preventing/Countering Violent Extremism

Preventing/Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) approaches are unlikely to succeed in the long term without addressing a range of structural factors, specifically political, eco

White Supremacy Extremism: The Transnational Rise of the Violent White Supremacist Movement

From Pittsburgh to Poway and Charleston to El Paso, white supremacist extremists (WSEs) pose a clear terrorist threat to the United States. And while extremist groups operating

Iran’s Playbook: Deconstructing Tehran’s Regional Strategy

To view Iran’s foreign policy posture as strictly a state sponsor of terrorism is short-sighted and fails to appropriately capture the comprehensive nature of how Iran operate

Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS): The Nucleus of Jihad in South Asia

Seventeen years after the 9/11 attacks, al-Qaeda has survived, due in large part to a deliberate strategy focused on gaining the support of the masses by “going local.” Al-Q

The Forgotten War: The Ongoing Disaster in Yemen

The humanitarian and security catastrophe in Yemen may result in a global security crisis, as the country further devolves into sectarianism and violent groups gain even stronge

Beyond the Caliphate: Foreign Fighters and the Threat of Returnees

As the so-called Islamic State (IS) loses territorial control of its caliphate, there is little doubt that the group or something similar will survive the worldwide campaign aga

Syria: The Humanitarian-Security Nexus

As the Syrian civil war marks its sixth anniversary in March 2017, the plight of Syrian civilians who have been forced to flee their home country over the past six years continu

Libya, Extremism and the Consequences of Collapse

In a new, in-depth report, The Soufan Group (TSG) examines the security implications of continued instability in Libya. Four years after the revolution that toppled Muammar Qadh

Foreign Fighters

In June 2014, The Soufan Group (TSG) released its initial Foreign Fighters in Syria report, which identified approximately 12,000 foreign fighters from 81 countries. Nearly eigh

The Islamic State

The self-styled Islamic State is an accident of history, emerging from multiple social, political, and economic tensions in the Middle East and beyond. It has challenged the ter

Foreign Fighters in Syria

Over 12,000 fighters from at least 81 countries have joined the civil war in Syria, and the numbers continue to grow. Around 2,500 are from Western countries, including most mem

Turning Insight
into Impact

At The Soufan Center (TSC), we turn knowledge into action. Through independence, rigor, and credibility, we inform, inspire, and deliver impact on some of the world’s most pressing challenges.

Screen-Shot-2019-02-22-at-4.08.14-PM-768x384

Inform

Delivering rigorous independent research and trusted analysis that sheds light on emerging threats and conflicts.

IMG_0368-scaled-2

Inspire

Transforming knowledge into deeper understanding that reveals the trends shaping the global security landscape.

1716369841686

Impact

Driving meaningful change by turning insight into action that shapes policy, reduces risks and leads to tangible progress.