May 7, 2026

SHARE |

The Global Humanitarian Fallout of the U.S.-Iran War

AP Photo/Bilal Hussein

Despite the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, that has so far held for the past month, the global humanitarian community has found little relief, if any, as the disruptions unleashed by the war — particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz — continue to reverberate across aid delivery systems, global supply chains, and already fragile humanitarian theaters. While about a quarter of the world’s oil is shipped through the Strait, significant volumes of food, fertilizer, and humanitarian cargo also pass through each year. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “humanitarian” effort this week, which he calls “Project Freedom,” to escort ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. However, it is currently unclear whether this initiative will increase hostilities or lead to the continuation of negotiations. Reporting has stated that Iran has had no tolerance for Trump’s initiative, attacking several commercial and naval vessels in the Strait and launching missiles at the United Arab Emirates. However, U.S. officials still claim that the ceasefire is still intact and that negations are still ongoing.

Nevertheless, the closure of the Strait has forced aid organizations to reroute shipments through land or through longer maritime routes, creating costly delays and bottlenecks that have fundamentally altered the tempo and scale of humanitarian response. This disruption is particularly severe for Gulf-based aid organizations. For example, the world’s largest humanitarian logistics hub, the International Humanitarian City (IHC) in Dubai — which serves UN organizations, nonprofits and non-governmental organizations and delivered 1,225 megatons of aid that reached over 3.6 million people, according to its 2024 annual report — has been acutely constrained, undermining one of the most critical nodes in the global humanitarian supply chain. Additionally, during the height of the war, a fire broke out at the Jebel Ali port in Dubai — the largest container terminal in the Middle East — which is located approximately 10 minutes from IHC, as the result of an intercepted missile.

Logistical disruptions have compounded financial pressures, including the cost of delivering aid, which have increased sharply since the onset of the conflict. These disruptions have been driven by a combination of rerouted shipments, port congestion, higher insurance premiums, and fuel price increases. Humanitarian organizations have shared the consequences of these disruptions, including the UN International Organization for Migration (IOM), which reported a $3,000 emergency surcharge on shipping containers. Save the Children told Think Global Health, an online bulletin out of the Council on Foreign Relations, that $600,000 of essential medicines bound for Sudan are held up at a port in Dubai, and that the cost of shipping $172,000 worth of nutrition supplies to children and pregnant women in Afghanistan via air shipment costs almost double of the value of the goods themselves. Not only do these constraints affect the operating budgets of these organizations, but the rerouting of shipments can also create extreme delays to the world’s most desperate communities.

The rise in fuel prices has also severely constrained the operations of humanitarian aid organizations, not just affecting aid delivery, but also powering critical infrastructure such as hospitals and water systems. Think Global Health cited a 2025 report that found that over 50 percent of hospitals rely on diesel-powered generators and noted that diesel prices are rising quicker and higher than gasoline prices. As fuel prices have surged, aid organizations have been forced to scale back operations, meaning fewer people can be reached at a time when needs are expanding, deepening vulnerability in already fragile contexts. For example, fuel prices are preventing patients in Somalia from being able to travel from their homes to hospitals and treatment centers. The Soufan Center has argued in the past that these populations are already susceptible to targeting by violent non-state actors and criminal groups; the further lack of support as a result of the war will likely only expand this issue.

Perhaps the most consequential industry impacted by these disruptions is the food and agriculture sector. Fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been constrained — threatening to severely limit agricultural output — while rising energy costs have raised the price of food worldwide, contributing to worsening food crises. For example, according to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), the price of basic food items has risen approximately 20 percent in Somalia and Myanmar. WFP also stated in March that 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity, or worse, such as famine, as a result of the conflict. There were already 318 million food insecure people worldwide before the war started in February. Regions of particular concern include Africa and Asia, as they rely the most on stable maritime supply chains for both food and agricultural inputs.

At the same time, the war has exacerbated the funding crisis faced by many humanitarian organizations following funding cuts from wealthy nations over the past year, particularly the dismantlement of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in 2025. According to Refugees International, global humanitarian aid spending declined by 30 percent — from approximately $14 billion to $3.7 billion — between 2024 and 2025. Many donor governments have diverted these resources toward defense spending and domestic priorities such as energy stabilization and economic mitigation measures tied to inflation. As such, resources for most humanitarian aid organizations have already been stretched thin, making adapting to the current constraints from the war even more difficult.

In this context, aid organizations have begun to call for the establishment of a dedicated humanitarian corridor through the Strait of Hormuz to help restore some predictability to aid flows and potentially lower shipping costs. However, the implementation of a humanitarian corridor raises questions about the level of coordination needed for such a monumental task. To date, most countries have declined to participate in helping to reopen the Strait, despite the behest of the U.S. With that, Trump’s threats have only further deterred international partners from supporting a maritime coalition in the Strait, as allies remain wary of being drawn into a dangerous environment without strategic clarity. Therefore, with little alternatives to routing the Strait of Hormuz, it is likely that humanitarian aid organizations will remain with these challenges, having to navigate a protracted period of disruption in which costs remain elevated, access is constrained, and needs continue to grow.