May 6, 2026

SHARE |

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Frays as Diplomacy Continues  

Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s effort to break Iran’s control of traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz — “Project Freedom” — triggered a deterioration of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire that began April 7. Iran’s attacks on shipping through the Strait have helped Tehran achieve its most significant gain of the war — a sharp reduction of oil and gas exports from the Arab Gulf states that has caused world energy prices to soar. The economic effects of Iran’s Strait closure have fueled significant pressure on Trump to either escalate to try to break Iran’s resistance or otherwise end the conflict without achieving key strategic objectives. In mid-April, Trump sought to counter Iran’s blockage of the Strait, without clearly violating the ceasefire, by imposing a naval quarantine on Iranian ports.

Trump’s team assesses that the blockade will impose sufficient costs on Iran’s regime and population and will compel Iranian leaders to accept U.S. demands in a new proposed agreement covering the major outstanding issues. Despite the strategic battle to control the Strait, U.S. and Iranian negotiators not only met for the highest-level talks since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, but they have continued to exchange positions for a potential framework. Trump told journalists on Monday that Iranian negotiators are becoming more “malleable” in their positions, including a reported concession to suspend the enrichment of uranium for a 15-year period, and to thereafter limit enrichment to purity levels consistent with purely civilian uses. However, Iranian leaders state that they believe they retain the strategic upper hand and show no signs of softening some of their demands, for example, that the U.S. pay reparations and withdraw its forces from the region. Iran has called the blockade, as well as Project Freedom, acts of war and violations of the fragile ceasefire, but Iranian civilian leaders still see opportunities for a peaceful end to the war. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Monday that “…talks are making progress,” and that he is visiting Beijing to discuss the war with Chinese leaders ahead of Trump’s upcoming visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in mid-May. The PRC wants the war to end, in part to restore its supplies of oil and gas, but Beijing also has sought to help Iranian leaders retain their grip on power as cohorts against U.S. global economic and political hegemony.

On Sunday, days after a briefing from the commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Admiral Brad Cooper on options to break Iran’s grip on Strait traffic, Trump announced “Project Freedom.” The mission, according to CENTCOM, will “…support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor.” Project Freedom builds on the earlier Maritime Freedom Construct initiative by the Departments of State and of War to “enhance coordination and information sharing among international partners in support of maritime security in the Strait.” However, the diplomatic initiative attracted little support from U.S. partners in Europe or Asia, virtually all of which opposed the U.S. decision to undertake Operation Epic Fury against Iran.

CENTCOM stated it is supporting Project Freedom with “guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members” — raising expectations among global leaders and energy executives that the U.S. military is formally escorting commercial shipping to safely transit the Strait. However, some statements by Trump and other U.S officials created confusion about the scope of the effort by characterizing it as a humanitarian effort to assist the seamen stuck for many weeks in the Gulf without resupply — without direct the participation of U.S. warships, which mostly remain positioned well outside the Gulf enforcing the U.S. blockade. According to U.S. officials, there are 22,500 mariners on 1,550 commercial vessels (of which about 35 percent are energy carriers) afloat in the Gulf, trapped there since the Iranian blockage of the Strait began.

No U.S. allies have answered the call by Trump officials to assist the effort, but U.S. officials nonetheless immediately pronounced Project Freedom a success. Two U.S. warships crossed the Strait on Monday and helped several U.S.-flagged commercial vessels to transit. Admiral Cooper attributed the initial gains to earlier work by CENTCOM to open a passageway through the Strait that is free of Iranian mines or other threats. He told journalists that the U.S. had established “multiple layers that include ships, helicopters, aircraft, airborne early warning, electronic warfare.” Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said at a Tuesday Department of War briefing that many of the stranded commercial vessels, encouraged by the first transits, are expecting to make the voyage through the Strait. But experts note that the ultimate fate of the operation will depend on whether shipping executives and their insurers judge that the risks of transiting the Strait have been sufficiently lowered to be able to send their vessels through the chokepoint in large enough numbers to ease the strain on energy markets. If the operation fails to restore an acceptable traffic flow through the Strait, it is likely that Trump will escalate to a more structured naval escort mission, which takes on significant risk of Iranian retaliation.

Secretary Hegseth also expressed the U.S. intent, despite the absence of pledges to date, to turn the Strait protection mission over to international partners. He told reporters: “Soon, we will hand responsibility of Strait to the world.” Reports on Tuesday indicated that U.S. officials are circulating to UN Security Council members a draft resolution, formulated in partnership with the Arab Gulf states, authorizing collective action to open and secure the Strait of Hormuz. The draft reportedly references action under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, a provision that could authorize military action to enforce the resolution.

Iranian hardliners, particularly Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders who appear in control of wartime decision-making, immediately implemented threats to try to thwart Project Freedom. They, along with other Iranian leaders, are determined not to relinquish Iran’s chokehold on the Strait to U.S. forces, an outcome that would ease global economic concerns and drain Iran’s leverage. Yet the IRGC faces resource and capability constraints that might limit its ability to effectively counter Project Freedom or any consequent U.S. escalation.

Despite its constraints, including a perception that it was violating the ceasefire, the IRGC immediately attacked the operation, directly and indirectly. Yet in an apparent effort to undermine support for the U.S. among the Arab Gulf states, Iran reserved its heaviest fire for the United Arab Emirates (UAE), launching 15 ballistic and cruise missiles and drones at UAE targets Monday. The UAE Defense Ministry announced that Iran had conducted additional attacks on the country on Tuesday. Most of the projectiles were intercepted, but a tanker belonging to the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) was struck, and one drone set fire to a facility at the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone. The Fujairah attack injured three Indian nationals, according to a UAE statement. One commercial vessel that Iran attacked on Monday was registered to South Korea, prompting Trump to post a call on social media for Seoul to join the U.S. protection effort.

IRGC Navy fast attack craft attacked several other commercial vessels and fired missiles and drones at U.S. warships participating in the Strait opening mission. U.S. officials said that all Iranian attacks on the U.S. Navy were thwarted by ship-borne defenses. The IRGC attacks prompted an alteration of U.S. rules of engagement to permit pre-emptive, as well as retaliatory attacks, on the IRGC attack craft. Trump told journalists on Tuesday that eight IRGC boats were destroyed, two more than the six CENTCOM said Monday it had sunk.

The clashes immediately raised questions whether the ceasefire had ended and if either Iranian or U.S. leaders planned to escalate. Some reports indicated that civilian leaders in Tehran questioned the IRGC’s attacks on the mission as escalatory and provocative, particularly by further alienating the leaders of the UAE. U.S. officials warned Iran not to further challenge the effort but also downplayed the potential for war to resume at prior levels. On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told journalists: “We have full control over the Strait of Hormuz … The U.S. is reopening the Strait of Hormuz … If Iran escalates, we will escalate as well.” Trump also told a Fox News reporter that if Iran targets U.S. ships, they will be “blown off the face of the earth.” Yet at the Department of War press briefing Tuesday, Secretary Hegseth told reporters: “The ceasefire is not over.” At the same briefing, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine stated that even though Iran had attacked nine ships since the start of the ceasefire, seized two tankers, and attacked American forces more than 10 times, the Iranian actions were “…below the threshold required to start a significant operation at this point.” Both military officials said they defer to President Trump whether, and under what conditions, to terminate the ceasefire and return to combat.