March 2, 2026

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Iran Raising the Costs of the Conflict by Targeting Critical Energy Infrastructure

(AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili, File)

The war with Iran has entered its third day, with Tehran expanding its attacks against U.S. military targets and assets, while also broadening its strikes on oil and energy facilities across the region. The attacks on energy infrastructure are a deliberate escalation by Tehran, as the Iranians seek to raise the costs of this war for U.S. allies in the Middle East. Just yesterday, Iran targeted ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In an appearance on Iranian television, Brig. Gen. Sardar Ebrahim Jabbari, an adviser for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed that the Strait of Hormuz was closed and any vessels that attempt to transit the strait will be set on fire. Today, Iran expanded the attack surface by launching strikes at more critical energy installations in the region, and the IRGC claims that it hit the Athena Nova oil tanker, a UAE-registered vessel, with two drones.

Iran’s targets reportedly include Saudi Arabia’s Aramco facility at Ras Tanura, one of the world’s largest oil production facilities and a mainstay of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry. The targeting of Ras Tanura is particularly significant, marking a deliberate effort by Tehran to spark volatility in the global oil market. Saudi Arabia is considered a steady and reliable producer, and Riyadh maintains the capacity to surge output and stabilize markets during supply shocks. Still, the targeting of Ras Tanura, which led to the shutdown of several refinery units, undermines that safeguard — even though it reportedly did not affect supply.

Ras Laffan in Qatar, the largest liquified natural gas (LNG) production facility in the world and the backbone of global LNG supply, was also targeted by Iranian drones. QatarEnergy, Qatar’s state-run energy firm, announced it was halting production following the attacks, shocking global natural gas prices. Additional critical infrastructure facilities across the Gulf were affected, including infrastructure like data centers in the UAE. Amid the conflict escalation Israel temporarily shut down some of its natural gas fields, including the offshore Leviathan field operated by Chevron as a security precaution amid the conflict escalation. Within Iran, explosions were reportedly heard on Saturday at Kharg Island, which processes approximately 90 percent of Iranian oil exports, though it is unclear if or how the facilities were affected.

As noted in one of our intelligence briefs published yesterday, Iran’s deliberate targeting of the energy sector introduces a new and dangerous dimension to this war. The conflict has escalated beyond merely a regional confrontation. By striking the energy arteries of the world, Tehran is signaling its capacity to impose global economic consequences and demonstrating to Israel and the United States that it is beyond their respective capabilities to keep the war contained.

Disruptions in LNG flows from Qatar, combined with targeting oil production facilities across the Gulf region, and threats to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, are expected to have profound market implications and directly impact supply-demand balances in both Europe and Asia. Markets will now be pricing in not just disruption, but sustained instability.

Oil prices rose nearly 10 percent today, while European natural gas prices surged nearly 50 percent following the halt of LNG exports from Qatar and due to broader disruption concerns. In Asia, benchmark LNG prices jumped 39 percent, with the S&P Global Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) — the primary Asian LNG benchmark — reflecting acute supply anxiety amid growing concerns.

Iran has made clear that in what it frames as a regime-survival conflict, it recognizes no red lines. The gloves, by their own declaration, are off. This escalation shifts the war from a regional military confrontation to a potential global economic shock event with immediate consequences for energy security, inflation, and geopolitical stability. In the meantime, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, rejected U.S. President Trump’s claims and media reports suggesting that he had reached out to resume negotiations with Washington. Writing in a post on X on Monday, he stated that Iran will not negotiate with the United States.