March 23, 2026

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One Battle After Another: No Easy Way for the U.S. to Open the Strait of Hormuz

(Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Daniel Kimmelman/U.S. Navy via AP)

Iran has turned its long coastline on the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint into a strategic asset against the United States and Israel. Iranian attacks on nearly two dozen oil tankers and other commercial ships have slowed energy shipments through the 21-mile-wide Strait to a trickle, sending global oil and natural gas prices soaring. In peacetime, more than 120 ships transit the Strait on an average day, carrying about 15 million barrels of crude oil, mostly to countries in Asia. Since the war began, traffic has slowed to about five or six ships per day, as global shipping companies avoid the risk of attack. The Strait's cutoff is only partially mitigated by diverting some oil exports to pipelines that bypass the Strait, and Iran is exporting nearly 2 million barrels per day through the route.

Iran’s de facto control over the chokepoint will present the U.S. and Israel with a strategic defeat if they are unable to restore freedom of navigation through the waterway, presenting President Trump with a pivotal choice between backing down or escalating significantly. Reflecting the pressure to escalate, on Saturday, Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait, lest the U.S. destroy Iran’s civilian power plants. Iran has threatened to retaliate against energy and water desalination facilities in the Gulf states. No matter how the Strait is reopened — whether through diplomatic accord or the threat or use of force — Iran’s regime has established a new normal in the Persian Gulf that leaves Tehran positioned to influence the global energy market.

Recognizing that Iran’s closure of the Strait has fueled global and U.S. domestic doubts about the concept and execution of Operation Epic Fury, Trump is trying to develop an escalation ladder of actions to end Tehran’s obstruction of the waterway. The strategy starts with presenting Iran with a broad alignment of major countries willing to protect shipping through the Strait. On Friday, Trump sought to pressure global leaders to act by emphasizing the U.S. is not dependent on energy flows from the Gulf, posting on his social media channel: “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations that use it – the United States does not. If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”

The U.S. coalition-building effort might be bearing fruit, after some significant fits and starts. To date, 22 countries have signed onto a Europe-led joint statement, issued Thursday, declaring: “Consistent with (UN Security Council) Resolution 2817, we emphasize that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including ?oil and gas installations. We ?express our readiness ?to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.” The signers include the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, Canada, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Denmark, Latvia, Slovenia, Estonia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Czechia, Romania, Bahrain, Lithuania, and Australia. UN Security Council Resolution 2817, adopted March 11 with only Russia and China abstaining, called on Iran to halt threats and provocations affecting maritime trade, including attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The Resolution also demands that Iran cease support for its Axis of Resistance coalition operating across the region. However, none of the signers of the statement has announced specific contributions to a joint effort to escort and protect shipping through the Strait.

Some key energy importers, including some signers of the joint statement, are engaging Iran diplomatically to allow safe passage for their energy shipments. According to some reports, Iranian leaders have reached several agreements thus far, of unknown extent or duration, in an effort to divide a U.S.-led coalition. Iran is reportedly receiving payments from countries whose shipments gain safe passage, as well as pledges to conduct energy transactions in yuan, China’s national currency. That stipulation represents Tehran's effort to undermine the U.S. dollar as the world’s main reserve currency. On Sunday, Iran’s representative to the UN-backed International Maritime Organization (IMO) said Tehran was ready to work with the agency to improve safety and protect seafarers in the Gulf, and insisted the Strait remains open, but only to vessels not linked to Iran’s “enemies.”

China, which did not sign the joint statement, may be benefiting from its many years of cooperation with Tehran, including the provision of missiles and other technology. Iran has reportedly allowed ships bound for China through the Strait unmolested. China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and some 40 percent of all of China’s crude oil imports and 30 percent of its imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) typically flow through the Strait. India has negotiated an accord with Iran under which three of its warships are escorting its natural gas and oil shipments from the Gulf. On Saturday, according to Kyodo News, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran is prepared to allow Japanese-related vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after consultations between the countries’ officials. Japan, a signer of the joint statement, is highly dependent on energy from the Gulf states and has said that restoring that flow is vital to its economy. The foreign minister of South Korea, another party to the joint statement, said Saturday that Seoul will follow Japan’s lead in talking with Iran about allowing its shipments safe passage. U.S. leaders see the bilateral safe passage accords as a temporary palliative that can put more oil and gas on global markets until a protection mission is assembled or Tehran relents. In another attempt to mitigate price pressure, on Friday, Trump issued an executive order allowing transactions in about 140 million barrels of Iranian oil on sanctioned tankers already afloat — oil that was unsold due to U.S. sanctions.

But U.S. officials and the public will view Operation Epic Fury as a failure unless full freedom of navigation through the Strait is restored — confronting Trump and his team with a major decision whether to escalate to try to force Tehran to relent. On Saturday evening, Trump signaled he is willing to escalate, posting on his social media account that the U.S. would destroy Iran’s civilian power plants if Iran did not allow the Strait to open fully for all traffic within 48 hours. Tehran responded by vowing to retaliate against Gulf energy facilities and the desalination plants the Gulf states depend on for usable water.

In the event that other initiatives fail, the Department of War is preparing options for the U.S. to open the waterway by force. Last week, U.S. forces began focusing air strikes on the Iranian coast, including coastal short-range missile emplacements and boats and munitions, in order to weaken Iran’s ability to attack ships in the Gulf. However, military experts assess that many months of such strikes would be required to cripple Iran’s ability to attack ships in the Gulf, and even then, Iran would likely still be able to threaten shipping with unconventional tactics such as unmanned surface vessels (USV) and gun-toting small boat operations that are difficult to detect

Another widely reported option focuses on the key Iranian oil loading terminal at Kharg Island — through which 90 percent of Iran’s oil is loaded onto tankers for export — to try to establish escalation dominance. U.S. officials assess that threatening to destroy, destroying, or capturing the island would cause Iran to capitulate to U.S. demands out of fear for a total loss of government revenue. On March 13, the U.S. struck all the military installations on the island, and Trump followed that action with a threat to destroy the oil installations on Kharg if Iran does not open the Strait. Yet many experts assess the regime only values its own survival, and will not be cowed by the cutoff of oil revenue, even if doing so inflicts substantial harm on the Iranian population.

To reinforce the threat of seizing Kharg and provide additional options, over the past week the Department of War has announced the deployment of two Marine Expeditionary Units to the region, each consisting of 2,200 Marines, equipped with combat aircraft, attack helicopters, and landing vessels. Other reports indicated the U.S. is preparing to deploy elements of the 82nd Airborne Division to the region. The U.S. buildup of ground forces has been accompanied by reports that one option under consideration provides for occupying Iranian islands and coastal territory, such as Qeshm and Larak islands and the port of Bandar Abbas, to control the Iranian side of the Strait. Several islands that U.S. forces might capture include Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, which Iran took from the UAE decades ago and that remain disputed between the two countries. However, controlling any of these territories will also require U.S. forces to prevent drone, missile, and artillery attacks from the Iranian mainland, potentially embroiling the U.S. in a longer-term, unpopular engagement on Iranian territory, accompanied by escalating U.S. casualties. Perhaps recognizing the potential for U.S. ground forces to become embroiled in an unpopular quagmire with no clear off ramps, on Thursday, Trump told reporters: "No, I'm not putting (ground) troops anywhere…If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you."