March 12, 2026

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Lebanon Wracked by Spillover from the Iran War

(AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

The fears shared by the U.S., Israel, and the Beirut government that Lebanese Hezbollah might, yet again, pull Lebanon into war against Israel have been realized. After the U.S. and Israeli air campaign killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah joined Iran’s counterattack by firing missiles and drones on Israeli territory, sparking an Israeli counteroffensive. The fighting in Lebanon is likely to outlive the Iran war, as Israeli leaders express intent to achieve the disarmament of the Iran-backed group that the Lebanese government promised but failed to deliver. Washington has signaled that it will not press Israel to curtail the offensive against Hezbollah, assessing that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) might weaken the group to the point where the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will be able to demilitarize Hezbollah permanently.

As tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated throughout February, Hezbollah pledged to the Beirut government that it would not retaliate on Tehran’s behalf should Israel or the United States act on threats to attack the Islamic Republic. However, following official Iranian confirmation that Khamenei had been killed in the opening salvo of the joint U.S.-Israeli operation, Hezbollah began barrages of missiles, rockets, and drones against Israeli territory, intensifying its attacks in the days that followed. Hezbollah also retook positions south of the Litani River, near the border with Israel, that the LAF had taken over from the group pursuant to the November 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah asserts that Israel has been routinely violating that pact by occupying five high points in southern Lebanon and conducting frequent strikes on Hezbollah positions throughout Lebanon. Hezbollah also explicitly rejected the insistence of U.S. and Arab Gulf state officials that donations to Lebanon’s reconstruction be contingent on Hezbollah’s nationwide disarmament.

Israel has responded with massive airstrikes, including intensive targeting of Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh, and a ground incursion into southern Lebanon. On Monday, Israel targeted a Beirut branch of the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Qard Al-Hassan financial institution, seeking to disrupt Hezbollah’s financing channels. Hezbollah units have engaged Israeli forces in ground combat, causing at least two IDF combat deaths. Approximately 570 Lebanese have died as a result of the renewed hostilities, according to the Lebanese Disaster Risk Management Unit, and more than 700,000 have fled south Lebanon and Hezbollah strongholds in and around Beirut. Israeli leaders vow to continue their offensive until Hezbollah is disarmed, likely signaling a long campaign that will extend beyond the U.S.-Israel hostilities against Iran.

Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel also demonstrated that, despite two years of continuous Israeli strikes on its surviving arsenal, the group remains a potent non-state actor organically connected to Iranian hardliners. It has retained sufficient firepower to force many residents of northern Israel to again flee their homes and to disrupt daily life in central Israel, including Tel Aviv. Despite the collapse of the Iran-aligned Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, the group is still able to receive advice and assistance from Iran, although less so from overland routes crossing Syria. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–Quds Force (IRGC-QF) commanders are still present in Lebanon, advising and arranging arms deliveries and financial support for Hezbollah. IRGC personnel are reportedly operating some Hezbollah weapons systems in Lebanon. Israel attacked a Beirut building last week, killing five high-ranking IRGC-QF commanders involved in arming and financing Hezbollah. Since the Iran war began, other members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance coalition, particularly Iran-aligned militia groups in Iraq, have also conducted retaliatory attacks on Iran’s behalf. The Houthi movement of Yemen has threatened attacks on U.S. and Israel-linked targets but does not seem to have taken any action to date.

Hezbollah’s decision to join the Iran war has upended Lebanese politics and undermined Lebanon’s leaders, including President Joseph Aoun (Maronite Christian) and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Sunni Muslim). The two leaders have argued to Washington, for the past year, that the LAF needs to move slowly to disarm Hezbollah throughout Lebanon. They argue that confronting the group would trigger a civil war with Lebanon’s Shias — who still strongly support Hezbollah — or fracture the LAF. Hezbollah cooperated with the disarmament process only in southern Lebanon (south of the Litani), arguing that area was the only territory the ceasefire agreement required it to evacuate. Aoun and Salam, along with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Shia moderate who speaks for Hezbollah with global diplomats, claim the group has betrayed them by joining the war. Berri, in particular, has been weakened politically as the senior leader who communicated Hezbollah’s assurances that it would obey the government’s directive to stay out of any conflict between Iran and the U.S. or Israel. Lebanon, the U.S., and Israel have concluded that the group’s decision to attack indicates that it is Iran’s IRGC — and not Hezbollah's political arm — that exercises effective control over the group's actions. Referring to Washington’s efforts to prod Beirut to disarm the group, a former U.S. official told journalists: “The Lebanese government was warned and warned and warned this would happen if they don't take action against Hezbollah."

Reflecting widespread public anger over the group’s reignition of war with Israel and criticism from Washington, Lebanese government leaders have messaged a renewed commitment to U.S. and regional leaders to end Hezbollah’s military autonomy. After Hezbollah began its strikes on Israel, Aoun and the cabinet under Prime Minister Salam outlawed the military and security wings of Hezbollah and ordered the deportation of IRGC members from Lebanese soil. Berri’s cabinet ministers voted in favor of that decision, which experts view as a turning point in the Amal faction’s support for Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s two cabinet ministers voted against the measure, but they did not resign from the cabinet, suggesting Hezbollah’s political wing would not seek to defend the actions of the organization’s militia.

Subsequently, the LAF began arresting members of Hezbollah and seizing some of their weapons, although some sources reported that those arrested were quickly released. Government forces also took back from Hezbollah control of the international airport, the port of Beirut, and many border crossings. Lebanon’s Central Bank has begun restricting Hezbollah’s cash flow, but Iran reportedly remains able to transfer cash to the group. However, as an indication of the hurdles Beirut faces against Hezbollah, LAF commander General Rodolphe Haykal has refused to deploy LAF troops against Hezbollah while Israel’s offensive is active. He also withdrew the LAF from checkpoints in southern Lebanon on the grounds that it lacks the capacity to defend itself from Israel’s advances. Those decisions enabled Hezbollah to return to areas near the Israeli border, fueling tensions with Aoun and Salam and drawing calls from U.S. officials and members of the U.S. Congress that he be fired.

While taking some action against Hezbollah, Lebanese leaders are also scrambling for a diplomatic pathway to end the fighting. On Monday, President Aoun told EU officials that Lebanon wants an immediate ceasefire, logistical aid for its army to disarm Hezbollah and secure the south, plus direct talks with Israel for permanent border stability and Israeli withdrawal. Axios, quoting U.S. official sources, reported that the Lebanese government had approached Trump officials to arrange direct negotiations with Israel in Cyprus, aimed at ending the war and negotiating a Lebanon-Israel land border or peace agreement — long-sought U.S. objectives. However, the U.S. and Israel responded skeptically to Beirut’s overture, doubting Lebanon’s commitment to move more aggressively to disarm Hezbollah in exchange for a halt to Israel’s offensive. U.S. and Israeli leaders have indicated they will look to the Israeli offensive to accomplish what Beirut did not — an operation that Israel insists will continue even after the Iran war ends.

Over the longer term, working in Beirut’s favor is a shift in Syria's position, which has historically exercised significant influence in Lebanon. In contrast to every round of Israel-Hezbollah fighting since the group formed in the early 1980s, the government in Damascus is supporting the Beirut government’s efforts to constrain the group. Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is committed to purging the influence of Iran and Hezbollah, has publicly supported Beirut’s decision to outlaw Hezbollah. He has moved troops to the border with Lebanon to prevent the group from using Syrian territory for strategic depth. The Syrian support might prove pivotal to Beirut’s efforts to constrain Hezbollah over the longer term. A trilateral phone call between al-Sharaa, Aoun, and French President Emmanuel Macron yesterday reinforced al-Sharaa's position, and the three countries agreed to maintain ongoing communication to closely monitor the situation and explore avenues for cooperation.

There are a few important takeaways to consider from recent developments in Lebanon. According to the Israeli military, roughly one hundred missiles were launched by Hezbollah, and there was coordination with the Iranians for the first time since the conflict began, demonstrating command-and-control that has remained intact despite the intense U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign. Moreover, the missile fire from Lebanon into Israel appears to be ongoing, and Israel seems to be responding very forcefully, particularly targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut as well as multiple villages in southern Lebanon. In addition, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard just issued a statement claiming they launched a Kheibar Shekan missile, which they characterized as part of a coordinated strike with what they called the “resistance” forces on the ground. If accurate, this would suggest a higher level of operational coordination. Lastly, it is important to note that Hezbollah has framed these strikes as part of a broader military operation. The group stated that its attacks targeted several Israeli towns — including Kiryat Shmona and others extending toward Nahariya — areas that the group had already asked residents to evacuate.