March 10, 2026

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The Iran War Serves as a Stress Test for European Strategic Autonomy

AP Photo/Petros Karadjias

As the war in Iran enters its second week, European countries that have so far avoided getting embroiled in the conflict have been increasingly pressured to do so — a direct challenge to their ambition for greater strategic autonomy. A combination of pressure by U.S. President Donald Trump, collective defense commitments, and concerns about energy prices and future refugee flows is increasingly drawing European states into the conflict. While European countries initially demonstrated varying degrees of opposition to the war, the enduring nature of the conflict, as well as its second-order effects, have increasingly drawn them in. Domestically in Europe, the war is deeply unpopular, with many concerned about the refugee flows that another conflict in the Middle East may bring forth, as well as a general aversion of U.S. military action in the Middle East after the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In addition, the Europeans are grappling with projecting greater strategic autonomy — a now decade-old project aimed at being able to act independently and in its own interests even when those interests diverge from the great powers, especially the United States — without widening the transatlantic rift. Further complicating Europe’s posture in this conflict is the lack of advance notice and inadequate defense the U.S. has provided to Gulf countries to protect them from Iranian retaliatory attacks, undoubtedly relevant to how Europeans think about deterrence against a revanchist Russia.

Europe, including the European Union (EU), has not spoken with one voice on Operation Epic Fury or the Iran war. While most countries have stated that they will not participate or facilitate offensive U.S. action from their territory or bases, some have softened their positions and permitted U.S. use of their bases for defensive purposes. The most outspoken so far has been Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who stated that Spain will “not be complicit in something that is bad for the world — and that is also contrary to our values and interests — simply out of fear of reprisals from someone.” France and the UK have been more actively involved in the conflict, though they have framed their actions as strictly defensive — unsurprising as they are the two European countries with military bases in the Gulf and have deep defense ties to the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain. Germany, host of the largest U.S. military base in Europe, has been the most accommodating to U.S. demands. Ramstein Air Base has served as a critical coordination hub in the ongoing war with Iran and has effectively been used for U.S. offensive operations, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz sidestepping questions of the legality of the U.S.-Israeli operations in recent days.

All of this maneuvering is not solely a response to the European electorate’s aversion to more conflict in the Middle East — especially with this latest war echoing much of the folly of the Iraq invasion — it also serves as a testing ground of greater strategic autonomy. If greater European strategic autonomy is defined as acting independently and in its own interests, then not getting involved offensively would be aligned with that. At the same time, strategic autonomy is only credible when Europe protects its own overseas military bases and honors its collective defense commitments whether within the EU proper — after Cyprus was struck by an Iranian drone — or with its Gulf state allies — bearing the brunt of Iranian retaliation. The move of European assets to the region, primarily to the East Mediterranean and Cyprus, have so far included France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, and the UK.

The most recent Iranian missiles intercepted in Türkiye indicate that NATO may soon also become a party to the conflict. Over the past week, NATO has intercepted two missiles over Türkiye — likely aimed at U.S. military bases there. On Monday, the U.S. Department of State raised its travel advisory for southeastern Türkiye to Level 4 and has started the evacuation of non-emergency employees in the regional consulate among heightened security threats — likely indicating that Türkiye will also become a key target for Iranian strikes.

Strategic autonomy in the context of the Iran conflict has also come to denote prioritizing European stability over U.S.-Israeli interest in regime change in Iran. For Europe, a high priority is stabilizing energy prices as soon as possible to avoid economic blowback. This is a pressing imperative since Europe’s phase-out of Russian energy was reliant on other energy sources, including access to Qatari liquified natural gas (LNG). The reverberations of the 2015 European migrant crisis also feature heavily in European calculations at the moment: another refugee wave would almost certainly be a fatal blow to legacy political parties and would likely lead to electoral wins for new right parties. Nonetheless, Europe is also keenly aware of the threats posed by Iran — including terrorist acts on European soil.

Perhaps the most unexpected consequence for the U.S. has been the effect its joint operation with Israel has had on the perception of U.S. allies around the globe. Civilian and economic infrastructure have been targeted heavily across the Gulf states since the start of the retaliatory strikes by Iran. As The Soufan Center has written, it is highly likely that Gulf officials will reassess the utility of American military bases on their territory, which, as this conflict has demonstrated, have neither acted as a deterrent nor protected these states from the impact of missiles and drones.

As Europe deals with a revanchist Russia on its eastern flank and the largest war on the continent since the end of World War II in Ukraine, the perceived lack of U.S. protection for the Gulf states may spill over into Europe’s own defense and deterrence considerations. It was the first Trump administration and the Ukraine war that accelerated the quest for greater European strategic autonomy. Nonetheless, over the past year of the current Trump administration, European leaders have attempted to strengthen the transatlantic relation to guarantee a continued U.S. commitment to Ukraine, most often through flattery. The most recent developments in Iran may put the utility of that strategy in question once more.