July 23, 2026

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Lebanon at the Fulcrum of the U.S.-Iran War

(AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Lebanon has become a central arena for an escalating struggle between two competing visions for the region — a U.S.-led concept of a region integrated within itself and with the West, and an Iran-led “resistance ideology” based on redressing historic grievances. But the battle is not only ideological. The U.S., Israel, and moderate Arab states seek to limit Tehran’s ability to project regional power through its arming and training of a network of non-state allies, the most prominent of which is Lebanese Hezbollah. In the context of a battle against U.S. forces that Iran considers existential, Tehran has sought to thwart any effort to disarm Hezbollah or to limit its political and policy-making influence in Lebanon — outcomes that Iranian leaders assess would deal a potentially fatal strategic blow to Iran’s regime itself.

As a sign of the weight Tehran puts on Hezbollah’s survival, Iranian negotiators insisted that the June U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) commit the United States to a ceasefire on “all fronts” in the region. The provision implicitly required the U.S. to pressure the Israeli government to end its military campaign against the group in Lebanon, although an Israeli withdrawal from its buffer zone in south Lebanon was not specifically stipulated. Although U.S. President DonaldTrump’s team has successfully prodded Israel to de-escalate its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran cited the June signing of a “Trilateral Framework Agreement” between Israel, Lebanon, and the U.S. as a violation of the MOU, contributing to the accord’s collapse. The framework commits the three countries to work together to disarm Hezbollah and pave the way for Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon, but Iran alleged that the agreement left Israel latitude to continue attacking Hezbollah. More broadly, the framework sets out a roadmap toward a formal peace treaty and eventual normalization of relations between Israel and Lebanon. That outcome would contribute significantly to Washington’s efforts to assemble a broad Arab coalition, one that is at peace with Israel, to counter Tehran’s seemingly darker vision centered on “resistance” to Israel, the U.S., and the broader West.

Conducting the first visit by a Lebanese President to Washington since 2009, Joseph Aoun, formerly the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), signaled that the Beirut government supports the U.S. vision of a region aligned against Iran and no longer at war with Israel. During his meeting with President Trump on Tuesday, Aoun thanked Trump for helping to secure a new framework aimed at ending the state of hostility between Lebanon and Israel “forever,” adding, “This will be your legacy.” The visit represented a culmination of five months of U.S.-led mediated direct talks between Israel and the Beirut government that Aoun leads. On the other hand, Aoun has repeatedly rejected the Trump team’s suggestions that Aoun meet one-on-one with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Aoun has made clear, including in his meetings in Washington this week, that a high-level summit with Netanyahu is out of the question unless and until hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah end and Israeli forces are no longer present on Lebanese territory.

Despite the growing consensus in Beirut that Hezbollah must finally be forced to give up its weapons, U.S., Israeli, and Lebanese officials face broad skepticism that they can fully and successfully disarm the U.S.-designated militant group. Hezbollah is deeply embedded in society, particularly among Lebanese Shias, and bound to its cause with religious zeal, supplemented by copious amounts of Iranian financial and military aid. After Hezbollah joined Iran’s defense effort in March, Israeli forces entered Lebanon to carve out a buffer zone along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Through six rounds of talks, which included the Trilateral Framework Agreement and pivotal follow-up meetings in Rome last week, the three governments developed a mechanism under which the LAF would begin enforcing Beirut’s mandate that Hezbollah be disarmed. Israel, Lebanon, and the U.S. agreed on a pilot program, beginning initially in two locations, under which the LAF would gradually take over positions in south Lebanon captured from Hezbollah by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). On Monday, coincident with Aoun’s visit to Washington, the U.S. State Department announced that implementation of the Israel-Lebanon agreement had begun. The announcement stated: “Today, pilot zone operations began in the villages of Froun, Srifa, and Zawtar Al-Gharbiya in accordance with the Trilateral Framework and under the auspices of the Military Coordination Group for Lebanon…The United States will continue working closely with both parties to implement the Framework to a successful conclusion.”

Yet Aoun’s visit also signaled that Beirut recognizes the substantial skepticism within Lebanon, the broader region, and among global leaders whether the trilateral plan to disarm Hezbollah and displace Israel from south Lebanon can succeed. During the meeting with Trump, Aoun noted that Lebanon’s Shia community — as reflected in recent comments by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabi Berrih, a leading Shia figure — doubts the plan will remove Israeli forces from south Lebanon. Aoun told journalists at the White House: “I think the Speaker of the Parliament also wants to see the end of this war. He's from the South, and he knows he did his best to rebuild the South. But unfortunately, the South is being destroyed in front of his eyes. So he's actually supportive of what we are doing, but we need to be careful.”

Aoun’s expression of caution reflects fears that a forceful attempt to disarm Hezbollah risks setting off communal warfare, such as that which tore Lebanon apart from 1976-1989. Addressing the domestic and global skepticism of the LAF’s ability to disarm Hezbollah, Aoun used his visit to Washington to request additional funding and military aid for the LAF. According to some reports, the U.S., Israel, and Lebanon are pushing ahead with a plan to train and vet elite units of the Lebanese Armed Forces to prepare them to disarm Hezbollah by force, if necessary. However, LAF commander Rodolphe Haykal has publicly warned that confronting Hezbollah militarily will cause the LAF to fracture, as it did during the civil war period. Others noted that, just hours before the Trump- Aoun meeting, Israeli forces fired on LAF units approaching one of their positions in the self-declared Israeli buffer zone in south Lebanon.

Searching for additional methods to disarm Hezbollah without further Israeli intervention, Trump has floated an unvetted concept to enlist the new Syrian government under Ahmed al-Sharaa in the battle against Hezbollah. For more than four decades, the Assad regime in Damascus, aligned with Iran, exercised preponderant influence in Lebanon. Sharaa — a former al-Qaeda activist whom Trump has praised — has turned Syria away from Iran but has shown no inclination to intervene in Lebanon, militarily or politically. Syrian officials have rebuffed Trump’s suggestion as unrealistic and destabilizing — for both Syria and Lebanon. But Damascus is willing to cooperate with Washington and Beirut to counter Iranian influence in Lebanon. Last week, Syrian authorities intercepted an Iranian shipment bound for Hezbollah, signaling that Iran’s covert arms pipeline to the group is not secure. In response, as a warning to Damascus not to interfere with Iranian support to the group, Iran announced an attack on the al-Tanf base in eastern Syria. The remote base was manned until early this year by U.S. forces combatting the Islamic State organization (ISIS), and some of Damascus’ forces might still occupy the facility. U.S. and Syrian officials deny there had been an actual attack on the facility.

Recognizing the centrality of Aoun to purging Iranian influence from Lebanon, Trump sought to provide Aoun with a concrete deliverable from his visit. Following the meeting with Aoun on Tuesday, Trump announced that U.S. airlines would be allowed to resume direct flights to Lebanon, more than four decades after such service was suspended. The U.S.-Lebanon flight connections ended after Hezbollah militants hijacked TWA Flight 847 in June 1985, diverted it to Beirut, and killed U.S. Navy diver Robert Stethem, a passenger on board. Trump posted on his social media account: “After meeting with the President of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, who has done a remarkable job working to transform his Country, I am hereby directing my Administration to allow all US airline carriers to fly directly to Lebanon so that Americans can easily visit this beautiful land.” The resumption of flights would provide a boon to the failing Lebanese economy, which runs largely on the U.S. dollar. However, U.S. tourists are unlikely to flock to Lebanon unless and until the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah comes to a full stop.