INTELBRIEF
July 22, 2026
The U.S. Waits Out the Iran War, Eyeing Potential Intervention in Cuba
Bottom Line Up Front:
- The U.S. State Department just released a report titled “Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism,” reviewing alleged Cuban spying efforts and support of “radical left” groups in the U.S., raising speculation that Washington could be seeking public support for a potential military intervention against Cuba.
- This report surfaces just days after a CBS investigation reported that senior U.S. military planners have been exploring several intervention options on the Caribbean island, citing anonymous Pentagon officials.
- The Trump administration’s approach to Cuba has evolved throughout this year, first adopting a pragmatic approach to incentivize political and economic reforms through diplomatic engagement, evolving into a strategy that stresses American military might and espionage capabilities.
- While the U.S. is unlikely to enter into twin, simultaneous wars with both Cuba and Iran, recent posturing with Cuba indicates that the Trump administration could be laying the groundwork for intervention once a revised memorandum of understanding (MoU) is achieved with Iran.
On July 20, the U.S. Department of State issued a nine-section report, titled “Cuba: the Capital of 21st Century Communism,” that purported a decades-long Cuban espionage and subversion operation to export the communist revolution to the U.S. through the use of left-wing terrorists, guerrilla networks, spies, and influence actors. The report largely reviews Cuban political aspirations from the early 1960s to the present day, highlighting several individuals and groups, such as the Venceremos Brigade, who have conducted influence operations to shape leftist politics in American academia, nonprofits, think tanks, and the Democratic Party. The report also names several organizations, both based in Cuba and the U.S., and alleged ties with the “Cuban-aligned left” and government, and asserts that many recent political upheavals in American history can be traced to a hostile Cuban government. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio promoted the report on X, stating: “For more than six decades, the Cuban regime has been the leading sponsor of radical leftism and Third Worldism in the United States. The State Department is exposing the full history of Cuban espionage and subversion in our country. The American people deserve to know.”
The report was released just five days after CBS News investigators issued a report that Pentagon planners had been exploring several military options in the Caribbean island nation. The report cited several anonymous high-level U.S. military officials who claimed that the Department of Defense had been tasked to examine multiple plans for intervention, ranging from a limited air assault to a ground intervention led by the 101st Airborne Division. The sources within the Pentagon did not confirm what the exact objective of the operation was; whether it was an operation mirroring the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, targeting only the political elite with the goal of limited regime change, or a whole-of-country approach that engages against guerrilla military units and props up a political movement. The CBS report followed reports from a month prior that U.S. military branches had conducted a concept-of-operations (CONOPS) briefing to raise different contingency plans for a mission in Cuba, identifying logistical and personnel requirements for proposed missions. U.S. Marines and Army aviation units also conducted a U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) exercise around Cuba that same month, with the intention of demonstrating how American military personnel could rapidly respond and execute multi-domain operations.
Over the last six months, the Trump administration has incrementally altered its approach towards Cuba. In the first three months of the year, Secretary of State Marco Rubio pressed for economic reforms and expressed willingness for limited engagement, with his delegation meeting with aides and relatives of Deputy of the National Assembly of the People's Power of Cuba Raúl Castro on the sidelines of major diplomatic conferences. However, by late spring, the U.S.’ posture shifted, as both Secretary Rubio and President Trump began to signal a more aggressive approach that relied less on diplomacy and more on the U.S.’ intelligence and security agencies. During a press call, President Trump noted that Cuba was “next” during a speech that touted U.S. foreign operations, while CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise and rare public debut in Havana to meet with Castro relatives and Cuban intelligence. Just days later, Secretary Rubio was photographed shaking hands with the SOUTHCOM Commander, General Francis L. Donovan, in front of a military map of Cuba, raising questions about whether the U.S. was merely sending signals to pressure the Cuban administration or if it was seriously weighing military intervention — particularly as it wages a separate war against Iran.
U.S. Secretary Rubio has largely communicated U.S. objectives for the Cuban government, calling for the current leadership to invite private sector actors to participate in the largely state-owned Cuban economy dominated by Cuban security forces and the conglomerate Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A (GAESA), and incorporate more technocrats into the political structure that would adopt further economic reforms. There has been some limited progress, particularly as Cuba faces a continued economic crisis and mounting pressure from the U.S., with the country adopting 176 free-market reforms in early July, relaxing restrictions on entrepreneurs, private banks, real estate development, multi-ownership structures, and foreign investors. Yet, it appears that the Trump administration has grown impatient.
While proving to be more risk-tolerant in military operations during his second administration, President Trump has reportedly expressed frustration over the prolonged timeframe of the Iran War, favoring ‘lightning’ interventions that can quickly achieve the administration’s goal of regime change, such as the January 2026 operation in Venezuela. If an intervention plan is selected, it is likely to involve a rapid amphibious operation to remove Castro, rather than a broader ground intervention that seeks to systemically weaken the regime over time. It is clear that the U.S. cannot realistically conduct twin simultaneous operations in Cuba and Iran, with a large concentration of American military assets staged in the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of operations to assist in the war against Iran. In order to make any successful move in Cuba, the Trump administration will have to await a revised MoU that extracts more Iranian concessions; however, Iran has demonstrated immense strategic patience and resilience, causing the war to drag on without a clear end. While the White House waits, it concentrates on a more aggressive posture towards Cuba, along with building a stronger case for potential intervention and fomenting a broader base of political support for such a decision.