July 17, 2026

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A Return to All-Out War in Iran?

(AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

As frustrations mount within the Trump administration over stalled negotiations and multiple violations of the ceasefire, the United States could be preparing to return to all-out conflict with Iran. Back-and-forth exchanges of strikes have, at least to date, not led to full escalation, but that could be about to change following six straight days of fighting. Iran has fired at commercial ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to U.S. attacks against a range of Iranian targets, including air defense installations, command-and-control nodes, and surveillance facilities. The U.S. Navy has reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports. In recent days, U.S. President Donald Trump has cast doubt on the durability of the ceasefire and changed his view of Iran’s leadership, which just last month he praised as “smart” and “far less radicalized,” instead labeling them as “scum,” “vicious,” “violent,” and “sick.” Iran’s leaders believe that after withstanding months of a joint American-Israeli military campaign, they have the momentum, despite massive challenges ahead with rebuilding the country’s infrastructure and stabilizing a suffering economy.

Just recently, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, released a statement that read: “We pledge to avenge the blood of the martyred leader and all the martyrs of these two wars from the criminal and disgraced killers.” After the U.S. killed former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 and the 86-year-old Khamenei in late February of this year, it is inevitable that President Trump, and potentially other high-ranking U.S. defense and military officials, will remain on Iran’s hit list. Just yesterday, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella term for Iran-backed militias in Iraq, released a statement online offering $10 million to anyone who kills President Trump. No matter what happens with the ceasefire and future negotiations, it seems likely that the U.S. and Iran will remain on a collision course. Even if a deal is reached, Israel, which is not a party to any deal, will continue to fight Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, and elsewhere, which will impact the durability of any negotiated settlement reached between Iran and the U.S.

One of the challenges of reaching a deal is that, at least on the surface, both Iran and the U.S. seem to believe they have leverage over the other, and each side has demonstrated a propensity to misjudge the other’s resolve and capabilities. At other times, it appears as if both sides are overplaying a weak hand. While President Trump often refers to finishing the job from Operation Midnight Hammer last summer, Iran’s propaganda is peppered with references that date back decades, viewing the conflict as another episode in a long-running battle dating back even before the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Yet the groups of leaders currently in charge in Iran, including Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr (Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran), Ahmad Vahidi (Commander in Chief of the IRGC), and Mohsen Rezaei, a special military adviser to the new Supreme Leader, have been assessed by U.S. intelligence as even more hardline than their predecessors. These individuals spent the past two and a half decades plotting against the U.S. military in Iraq and Afghanistan, while watching the way America’s armed forces fought in battle. They also have a keen understanding of the information environment and have deftly used propaganda effectively in this war.

The current crop of leaders is more media-savvy and less tied to the clerical establishment, and is instead drawn from the IRGC, the military, and intelligence agencies. What they lack in religious credentials, they more than make up for in ruthlessness and brutality in the service of remaining in power. More politically minded Iranian leaders, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have been marginalized in terms of power, influence, and decision-making.

With true disagreement over what the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) says about control over the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is unlikely to forfeit its claim over this strategic maritime chokepoint. Iran recognizes that, whenever it decides necessary, it can hold global energy markets hostage with threats to disrupt commercial maritime shipping. Iran’s leaders believe that if they can use this threat effectively, while replenishing their missile and drone stocks and rebuilding their proxies, they can continue seeking regional hegemony.

According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump, after days of briefings from his aides, is leaning toward ramping up U.S. military operations in Iran, including a potential strike on a tunnel complex at Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear-linked site in Iran. While President Trump has historically sought to avoid a U.S. military ground invasion of Iran, which would be a significant escalation of the five-month war and spark domestic opposition, it is reportedly something he is actively considering. Iran is banking on rising oil prices emanating from the crisis over the Strait of Hormuz and looming American midterm elections as constraining factors on Trump, who has repeatedly talked about his preference for making a deal. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Iran’s parliament and its top negotiator, said that Iran was prepared to fight, but was also open to a diplomatic solution.

As the Trump administration seeks to generate whatever leverage it can for a future MOU that would extract additional concessions from Iran, its strategy of escalation inches the Middle East closer to all-out escalation. As the U.S. scrambles to identify a pathway towards a victory, both in political and military terms, Iran does not show many signs of backing down on its posture over its control of the Strait of Hormuz, its proxies, its style of governance, nor its adversarial position against the U.S. and Israel. This spells out an uncertain trajectory for the region in the months to come.