July 15, 2026

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Syria’s Transition Advances Amid Persistent Security Challenges

(AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)

As Syria seeks to further develop its political institutions, rebuild a broken social contract with citizens, attract foreign investment, and engage with international stakeholders, its fragmented security landscape could serve to derail tangible progress — particularly the threat of terrorist organizations, such as the Islamic State (IS). Despite these challenges, Syria marked an important political milestone on Sunday when its newly formed parliament convened for the first time, approximately one and a half years after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. The inaugural session signifies the new administration’s attempt to transition from a revolutionary authority to a functioning state with representative institutions. While the meeting was welcomed by some as a step toward restoring governance, concerns such as the appointment of former regime officials and ongoing questions surrounding minority representation — as well as executive influence on future elections — underscore significant obstacles that remain within Syria’s political system. The session brought together the 210-member People’s Assembly, which was established under Syria’s temporary constitutional declaration following the fall of the regime. Roughly two-thirds of the lawmakers were selected through regional electoral colleges, while interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa appointed the remaining third. The parliament is expected to serve for approximately 30 months while overseeing the drafting of a permanent constitution and laying the legislative foundation for future national elections.

President al-Sharaa addressed the new parliament, presenting it as the cornerstone of Syria’s post-Assad political order. In his address, he urged lawmakers to become “a model of responsibility and competence,” emphasizing their role as “a platform for truth and justice.” The speech reflected efforts by Damascus to demonstrate to both domestic and international audiences that Syria is moving beyond personalist rule toward a more inclusive governing authority. Such messaging is particularly important as the government seeks sanctions relief, foreign investment, reconstruction assistance, and diplomatic normalization with regional governments and Western states, all of which have emphasized political reform and inclusive governance as prerequisites for sustained engagement.

Much of the attention surrounding the parliament’s formation has focused on whether it adequately reflects Syria’s ethnic and religious makeup. Unofficial tallies show that 10 seats of the assembly include representatives from Kurdish, Christian, and Alawite communities, while women account for roughly ten percent of seats. However, four parliamentary seats remain vacant, including three allocated to the predominantly Druze province of Suwayda, where sectarian violence — including violence perpetrated by government forces — has killed approximately 1,700 since July 2025. Authorities claim the selections will not be made until “conditions become suitable.”

The parliament’s formation has unfolded against the backdrop of a broader national debate over transitional justice and the role of former regime figures in Syria’s post-Assad state. While the new assembly is intended to symbolize a break from decades of authoritarian rule, many Syrians remain concerned that former regime-linked officials could continue to occupy positions across the government. In recent months, demonstrations throughout Syria have called for greater accountability and opposed the “recycling” of former Assad-era officials. According to ACLED, many of these protests have centered on demands for transitional justice and fears that reconciliation efforts are proceeding without sufficient accountability for abuses committed under the Assad regime.

Adding to the controversy over domestic reforms, the new Syrian government faces mounting challenges in its security landscape. In just a week alone, Syria’s capital of Damascus experienced at least three explosions conducted by terrorist actors. On July 2, a bomb was detonated outside a cafe regularly frequented by judicial officials from the Justice Palace, killing at least 10. On July 7, two blasts occurred, just as President Emmanuel Macron and his French delegation were conducting the first state visit of a European Union country to Syria. The two bombs detonated near the Ministry of Tourism and near the Four Seasons Hotel, where President Macron had stayed, but left in a motorcade just shortly beforehand, wounding at least 18 people. The devices used were simple yet reflected an intentional strategy to deflect attention, spark confusion and fear during one of the first state visits in Syria after the fall of Assad, and generate doubts about the new government’s ability to prevent terrorist attacks and control its security landscape.

Just days after the attacks, surveillance camera recordings and confessions led to several raids in Qudsaya, al-Husainiyah, Qatayfa, and Ush al-Warour and the arrests of several Islamic State members: Diaa Shaker Al-Qasim, Muhammad Assaad Muahmmad, and Abdullah Younis Al-Jubouri. The Ministry of Interior reported that this same cell that conducted the twin attacks during President Macron’s visit to Damascus also conducted an earlier attack against the Ministry of Defense's Armaments Directorate building on May 19 in the capital’s Bab Sharqi district. Experts on Syria's terrorism landscape, such as Aaron Zelin and Gregory Waters, have both maintained that there are likely many more terrorist incidents that have gone unattributed to the group, given the Islamic State’s shifted strategy after 2020 to leave their attacks unclaimed.

Other Islamic State plots and arrests have followed. Days after the attacks in Damascus, officials in Daraa arrested a five-member network of IS fighters that included one senior member, Firas Dagher — commonly known as the “Governor of Lebanon and Palestine” — as the group was conducting a series of armed robberies and assassination plots. On July 13, Turkish Intelligence arrested a Syrian IS member, Talip Güler, whose brother served as the head of the Islamic State’s “Türkiye Province” and was captured in 2021. That same day, Lebanese Security Forces announced the arrest of a senior Islamic State leader two weeks prior, “H.R.,” who had overseen operations in southern and central ‘wilayas’ or governorates in Syria.

While the twin Islamic State attacks did not successfully dissuade the French delegation from cutting the state visit short and leaving Syria in light of the heightened security risk, the incident highlighted a shortcoming for the new Syrian administration. It illuminated how the Islamic State was strategically broadening its strike targets beyond traditional checkpoints and convoys of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS — even beyond targeting officials within the new administration — focusing on opportunities that could dissuade Syria’s engagement with foreign partners and sow seeds of doubt in the new government’s style of governance and ability to protect the population. The sensitive timing of recent attacks — amidst high-level diplomatic engagement, judicial trials against former regime security officials, and in anticipation of the first Parliamentary Assembly convening — indicates that the Islamic State will continue to time its strikes on symbolic, high-value targets as the country approaches national milestones, in addition to its string of random attacks against traditional military targets.

While analysts such as Navvar ?aban have argued that these attacks should be interpreted as individual security incidents rather than a more existential security crisis for Syria, the attacks do highlight the evolving intent of the Islamic State beyond traditional targets, as well as their potential to serve as a spoiler for broader institution-building efforts and engagement opportunities with foreign investors and leaders alike.