February 9, 2026

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U.S.-Iran Talks Ease Tensions, but Achieve Few Tangible Gains

(Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP, File)

Negotiators for the U.S. and Iran convened in Muscat, Oman on Friday, eight months after talks broke off following the U.S. military operation (Operation Midnight Hammer) that, by all accounts, crippled Iran’s ability to advance its nuclear program. Similar to the five rounds of U.S.-Iran discussions in April-June 2025, the Muscat talks were conducted mostly indirectly — a format insisted on by Iran. The talks were mediated by Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, but according to some accounts, brief direct interactions took place between the U.S. and Iranian teams. Iran’s lead negotiator, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, characterized the session as a “good start,” and added that “there is almost a consensus” that further talks should be held. President Trump described the talks as “very good” and suggested the two sides would meet again early this week, although no firm timeframe for a resumption has been announced.

Although the format and location were similar to the talks in 2025, the context of Friday’s session differed sharply. Iran’s leaders agreed to new talks as a means of avoiding the U.S. military action Trump has threatened in support of the major uprising in Iran last month.  Washington has amplified the threat by assembling what Trump refers to as a “massive armada” in the region. But facing pressure from regional leaders wary of sparking new regional warfare, and uncertain that U.S. military action would change Iran’s regime, Trump decided to pursue diplomacy with Tehran. Trump and his team appear to have determined that the U.S. could use Tehran’s internal and regional setbacks to achieve a comprehensive agreement that would sharply reduce the broad range of threats posed by Iran’s government. Yet the U.S. decision to enter new talks with Tehran has demoralized Iran’s opposition, which had been encouraged by Trump’s public promises during the uprising that “help is on the way” — a reference to U.S. military action against Iran’s leaders and security institutions.

Trump’s team has messaged Tehran that it will insist on maximum concessions from a beleaguered Tehran by adding economic and political pressure, even as talks convened. U.S. officials ruled out providing any advance “confidence-building measures” typically requested by Tehran, such as a release of some of Iran’s blocked assets held in large banks around the world. Employing psychological warfare, Trump’s team pointedly added Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), to the negotiating team in Muscat led by Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump adviser Jared Kushner. Immediately after the talks adjourned, U.S. officials announced new sanctions on Iranian oil firms and ships they said were “connected to the illicit trade” in oil and “generated revenue that the regime uses to conduct its malign activities. The statement added: “Instead of investing in the welfare of its own people and crumbling infrastructure, the Iranian regime continues to fund destabilizing activities around the world and step up its repression inside Iran.” Also on Friday, Trump issued an Executive Order establishing the authority to impose a 25 percent tariff on imports from nations that do business with Iran. The Order itself did not immediately impose any new tariffs. Some reports also indicated Trump’s team was organizing a meeting of Iranian dissident leaders to plan for a post-regime Iran — a message to Tehran that Trump still seeks political change in Iran, even as his team negotiates with Iranian officials.

Yet Iranian leaders have shown no inclination to capitulate to Trump’s pressure. In the days leading up to the Oman talks, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized two oil tankers it claimed were “smuggling fuel.” The IRGC also launched several drones toward the U.S. Carrier Strike Group (CSG) in the Arabian Sea, one of which was shot down by U.S. forces for posing a threat to the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. Through its actions, the regime sought to reinforce its threats to expand conflict throughout the region and cause significant U.S. casualties, if attacked — exploiting Trump’s resistance to becoming embroiled in an open-ended regional conflagration with no clear off-ramp. As a counter to Tehran’s signals, Witkoff and Kushner accompanied Cooper on the Lincoln on Saturday to emphasize the significant military power wielded by the U.S. fleet.

Iranian leaders also left little room for substantive progress in the talks, stating in advance they would only address Iran’s nuclear program during the session. Tehran insisted it would not discuss Iran’s ballistic missile program, its support for armed factions (Axis of Resistance coalition), or its killing of dissidents.  Broadening the talks to include the full basket of outstanding issues has been a core demand of the Trump team, in the context of the regime’s weakening grip on power. In an interview with Al Jazeera after the talks, Araghchi claimed only nuclear issues were discussed, adding that Iran’s missile arsenal is a “defensive matter for us and is not subject to negotiation — neither now nor in the future.” Iran’s refusal to consider compromising its missile arsenal reflects the erosion of Iran’s other deterrents, particularly the ability of its Axis of Resistance partners, particularly Lebanese Hezbollah, to project power on Tehran’s behalf. Surprising some U.S. officials and partners, particularly Israel, Trump indicated to a reporter Friday that an agreement limited to nuclear issues might be “acceptable” if it definitely blocks Iran’s pathway to a nuclear weapon.

Yet Iran’s missile capabilities are of primary concern to Israeli leaders, who insist Israel will strike Iran again if a U.S.-Iran agreement does not sharply reduce that threat. The Israeli warning is taken seriously by U.S. officials — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision in June to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities program derailed the U.S. diplomatic efforts to achieve a voluntary dismantlement of Iran’s uranium enrichment program. The possibility that Trump might agree to Tehran’s insistence on a narrowly-focused nuclear agreement apparently alarmed Netanyahu. An Axios media report on Saturday indicated Netanyahu would accelerate his visit to Washington, requesting a meeting with Trump on Wednesday, one week earlier than planned, to stress Israel’s position that a new Iran deal must limit Iran’s missile program and its support for regional armed factions.

On the substance of the nuclear issue, there were few signs in Muscat that Iranian leaders are willing to move beyond the positions that hindered progress in the 2025 nuclear talks. Trump’s team had assessed that Iran’s mounting challenges would compel Tehran to accept proposals it rejected in 2025 — an end to all uranium enrichment inside Iran and elimination of its stockpile of 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium. That stockpile — the location and status of which is unknown to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — contains enough fissile material, if enriched further, for at least nine nuclear weapons. However, Araghchi told Al Jazeera after the Muscat talks that: "Zero uranium enrichment is irrelevant in negotiations for us. Uranium enrichment is our right and must continue.” He also indicated Tehran rejects proposals to move its enrichment activities offshore, beyond Tehran’s control. Araghchi attempted to signal flexibility by stating Tehran will accept an agreement that reassures global leaders and the IAEA that Iran’s enrichment is for peaceful purposes — a formulation Iran has restated for many years. Specifically, Araghchi mentioned publicly that Tehran might consider capping the level of enrichment — presumably to the 3.5 percent purity level for use in nuclear power plants. However, most experts assess that, having insisted its bargaining position is strong, the Trump team would have difficulty advertising as a diplomatic success any agreement that did not include zero enrichment.

To reinforce its leverage amid Tehran’s apparent inflexibility, the Trump team continues to deploy forces to the region. Most of the offensive capability is in the region, including 10 warships now in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), including the Lincoln. Some reports indicate an additional CSG might be moving toward the region as well. U.S. officials seek to reassure their U.S. allies in the Gulf and in Israel that they can provide sufficient defense against Iran’s threats to retaliate against them for any U.S. strike. Guided missile destroyers, such as the USS Delbert D. Black, are part of the armada to provide defense against missiles and drones, as well as standoff strike capabilities. In addition, the U.S. has deployed a U.S. Air Force RC-135V Rivet Joint electronic surveillance plane to the large Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, according to online flight trackers. The Rivet is one of the U.S.’s most capable intelligence-gathering assets, possessing a large array of signals intelligence (SIGINT) systems that detect and intercept communications and other electronic emissions. The RC-135 is often used to build an electronic order-of- battle of an adversary nation, locating their air defenses and command and control nodes, as well as intercepting communications. The capability is critical to building an effective war plan and to understanding an enemy’s intentions and the status of its military at any given time.