INTELBRIEF
August 3, 2026
Amid Expanding Regional Warfare, U.S. Announces Hamas Disarmament Deal
Bottom Line up Front
- Facing a prolonged and expanding conflict against Iran, President Trump trumpeted an agreement by Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza to disarm, calling the pact a “step toward lasting peace and security” in the region.
- The disarmament agreement, a key component of the Trump “20 Point Peace Plan for Gaza,” might provide the U.S. with leverage against Iran by demobilizing one of Tehran’s armed non-state allies.
- The plan leaves room for dispute between the warring parties on the timing and extent of the Hamas weapons handover and an Israeli pullback in Gaza, rendering its implementation uncertain.
- If successful, the pact might stimulate the reconstruction of Gaza by paving the way for Hamas to hand political and military power to a technocratic governing committee and an International Stabilization Force (ISF).
On Thursday, U.S. President Trump announced that the “Board of Peace” — the multilateral organization formed by his October “20 Point Peace Plan” for Gaza — had obtained a pledge by Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza to disarm. The weapons handover, as well as other commitments and steps, are outlined in a “A Roadmap for Completing the Implementation of President Trump’s Comprehensive Peace Plan in Gaza” document released by the Board of Peace on Friday. Hamas’ acceptance of disarmament, if implemented, seemingly resolves what has, thus far, proved the main hurdle to stabilizing and ultimately rebuilding the enclave.
The Board’s roadmap nonetheless was received with broad skepticism because it also requires Israel to agree to withdraw from the nearly 70 percent of the territory it is occupying as a buffer zone against the group. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who earlier in the week discussed the emerging Gaza plan with Trump in Washington, has not commented on the document. Other Israeli government officials have expressed opposition, although without rejecting it outright. Israel has consistently delayed implementing its commitments under the Trump peace plan on the grounds that Hamas refuses to disarm, and Israelis across the political spectrum doubt the group will ever give up its politico-military control of Gaza. The Board of Peace roadmap fails to resolve the dispute over the timing and sequencing of Hamas demobilization: Israel demands Hamas disarm before it would withdraw, and Hamas demands Israel withdraw before it will hand over its weaponry.
Despite the skepticism of the accord’s viability, U.S. officials sought to paint the Board of Peace roadmap as a historic accord that would help stabilize a region in crisis. Trump posted on his social media account that the agreement is “historic,” insisting that it would lead to the complete disarmament of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza and marked a step toward “lasting peace and security.” Trump’s championing of the agreement represented, perhaps, an effort to counter growing criticism that the war against Iran has failed to achieve any U.S. strategic objectives.
U.S. officials noted Hamas’ agreement to disarm adds leverage to the U.S. battle against Iran, representing a defeat for a key member of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” coalition. Iran has used its coalition partners, particularly the Houthi movement in Yemen and Iran-aligned militia units in Iraq, to expand the war throughout the region and demonstrate it can damage the global economy. Iranian leaders similarly assessed a Hamas disarmament deal would reduce Tehran’s bargaining position, explaining why Iranian leaders pressed Hamas, unsuccessfully, to reject it. The weakening of Iran’s non-state allies, particularly Hamas and Hezbollah, also explains why Iran has steadfastly resisted any agreement with Washington that ends its control of the Strait of Hormuz, a gain that represents Tehran’s most significant source of strategic leverage.
Israel fundamentally distrusts that Hamas will ever relinquish indirect control over the territory. Israeli officials state their forces will not withdraw from its buffer zone until the enclave is fully under the control of independent Palestinians working with U.S.-led outside stakeholders. Reflecting that concern, the stated intent of the roadmap is to provide the technocratic governing body — the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) — with a monopoly of armed force and the capability to prevent challenges to its authority. According to the Board of Peace document: “Gaza shall be governed according to the principle of One Authority, One Law, One Weapon. NCAG shall operate in accordance with Palestinian laws, relevant international standards and the principles of good governance.” It adds that: “At the end of the process mentioned in articles 7 – 10 (security provisions) of this Roadmap, only NCAG shall hold, store or control weapons in Gaza.” According to Paragraph 7 of the plan: “All police weapons shall be transferred to the responsibility and authority of NCAG upon its entry into Gaza and the assumption of its missions.” The light weapons are to be used by the post-Hamas police force in Gaza.
Israel also objects to the plan’s relatively vague provisions for the disposition of Hamas arms that might pose a threat to Israeli territory – heavy weapons, arms manufacturing facilities, and tunnels. Fueling Israeli and broader skepticism of the plan’s prospects, Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’s negotiating team, told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that Hamas would not hand over its heavy weapons, but rather place them in a storage facility overseen by the NCAG. He added: “We didn’t say disarmament, we didn’t say handing over the weapons, and we didn’t agree on any Israeli involvement,” adding that Hamas cooperation is also contingent on Israel ending military operations in Gaza and allowing in more humanitarian aid. Other Hamas leaders provided cause for additional concern by asserting the group’s turnover of its heavy weapons is contingent on the creation of a Palestinian state – an outcome that global leaders universally assess is a long way off.
If the program’s weaknesses can be overcome, the plan might set the conditions for the rebuilding of Gaza under a new, consensus-based government. The plan stipulates that, upon the completion of a “timetable and implementation mechanisms,” which is to occur within 14 days, the NCAG is to deploy to Gaza from its base in Egypt. The fifteen-member body, headed by Palestinian statesman Nabil Shaath, has worked in Cairo since its formation in January 2026, blocked from Gaza by fighting, objections from Israel, and Hamas’ refusal to disarm. Hamas’ announcement in early July that it would hand political authority to the NCAG represented the first key breakthrough the Board of Peace needed to finalize last week’s accord. According to the Roadmap document, Hamas and other armed factions “…assert that NCAG shall enjoy full independence in carrying out its responsibilities and that the factions shall not interfere in NCAG affairs during the transitional period, in accordance with UNSC Resolution 2803 (2025).” Yet, Israeli and some global officials suspect Hamas can continue to wield significant power informally.
The Board of Peace’s plan also paves the way for the broad deployment of the International Stabilization Force (ISF) to secure Gaza and facilitate an Israeli withdrawal from the enclave, as envisioned in the 20 Point Peace Plan. To date, few nations, if any, have been willing to finalize their pledges of forces for the unit, citing lack of progress stabilizing Gaza. However, last week the Israeli government acceded to U.S. pressure to approve a pilot program under which a 200-person ISF contingent would deploy to Israel-controlled areas near the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Donors to the unit include Morocco, Kosovo, Albania, and Uganda. The Board of Peace’s roadmap agreement envisions the ISF will deploy throughout Gaza, stating the ISF will “separate the Israeli forces from NCAG-controlled areas.” The document adds the ISF “…shall not perform any police mission or missions related to the Palestinian society. Furthermore, it shall monitor compliance by all parties with the ceasefire, train the Palestinian police, secure the protection and delivery of humanitarian assistance and essential supplies into the Gaza Strip, and support the NCAG, at its request, in any other non-policing mission.”
The advance of the U.S.-backed peace plan for Gaza increases the prospects for an eventual rebuilding of Gaza, which remains largely destroyed in the nearly four years of war since the October 7 Hamas attack. Key donors, including the Arab Gulf monarchies, have thus far withheld reconstruction pledges until there is certainty the war in Gaza is over. According to the Board of Peace roadmap document: “Implementation of the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and the provision of necessary resources and financing shall take place according to a plan and timetable prepared and supervised by [Board of Peace] and NCAG in accordance with relevant laws and international standards.”