INTELBRIEF
August 28, 2026
Depleted U.S. Stockpiles Raise Strategic Risks
Bottom Line Up Front
- The U.S. is experiencing a shortage in its munitions supply, with experts estimating it could take up to four years to replenish stocks of weapons like Land Attack Missiles (TLAM), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot missile defense systems, and Precision Strike Missiles.
- While the shortage does not heavily restrict the U.S.’ short-term capabilities in its war against Iran, the strain on production and gap in supply may hinder U.S. capacity in potential great-power confrontation against rivals like Russia and the People’s Republic of China or deterrence goals against North Korea.
- The munitions crisis has come as a test for the U.S. defense industrial complex, requiring weapons manufacturers to quickly escalate production that can match demand for future conventional and asymmetric conflicts — some that could be conducted simultaneously.
- While the U.S. has expended some of its weapons stockpile in its role in supporting Ukrainian defenses against Russia, defending Israel against Iranian missile strikes, and military operations against Houthi militants in Yemen, the largest source of expenditure has stemmed from the recent war against Iran.
In recent weeks, fears over the dwindling U.S. munitions stockpile have intensified as the Iran war extends into its seventh month. U.S. intervention in Iran and aid to Ukraine has rapidly depleted stores of munitions. Reports have estimated that nearly 80 percent of U.S. THAAD missiles and 50 percent of Patriot interceptors have been depleted. Additionally, the supply of Tomahawk missiles is estimated at a critical level of less than 50 percent. The Trump administration has denied that a munitions crisis exists, while also blaming the Biden administration for giving too many weapons to Ukraine in its war with Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social in early August that “[t]he U.S. has massive amounts of ‘munitions,’ especially of certain types. Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the U.S. as needed. Defense companies are building the largest number of plants and factories in our country’s history.”
Still, an increase in defense budget and munitions production is not the magic bullet it may seem. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that the return to pre-Iran war inventory would not be reached until 2030 for Tomahawk missiles and 2029 for THAAD and Patriot munitions. Yet, restoring the weapons stockpile to pre-war inventory will require the defense industry to shift to a production model that prioritizes cheaper and mass-produced weapons. THAAD interceptors, for example, are highly complex to manufacture at the rate the military needs to replenish their stores. Historically, weapons manufacturer Lockheed Martin only constructs 96 of them in a year. However, in June, Lockheed Martin signed a seven-year $35 billion contract to quadruple their capacity to 400 interceptors a year, but the ramp up could take years.
While Washington’s July 2026 decision to give Ukraine the licensing rights to manufacture their own Patriot interceptors may alleviate stress on the stockpile, any domestic production would take more than a year to begin and has not been officially confirmed by Washington, meaning the deal could be reversed. To compensate, Ukraine has begun ramping up its own domestic weapons and drones production and sought out older munitions to account for shortfalls from U.S. military aid. While Kyiv’s potential licensing agreement to produce Patriot missiles would greatly help their long-term fight against Russia, it will not benefit them in the short-term, considering the start-up time required to begin manufacturing.
Although the shortage does not heavily restrict the U.S.’ short-term capabilities in its war against Iran, the strain on production and gap in supply may hinder U.S. capacity and readiness in potential great-power confrontation against rivals like Russia or the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Stressed U.S. weapons stockpiles that have been strained by conflict in the Middle East and in the Russia-Ukraine war have added tensions to potential brewing conflicts in the Indo-Pacific theater. Washington’s prioritization of the Middle East conflict has led the Trump administration to relocate munitions from the vulnerable Indo-Pacific region, principally South Korea and Japan, to replenish stockpiles in the Middle East in the event of renewed strikes against Iran. This move has concerned Tokyo and Seoul, who have looked to the U.S. to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. As tensions continue to flare between North and South Korea and the PRC and Taiwan, deprioritizing the region — which could be a hotbed of conflict in the coming years — risks instability.
Recently, international satellites have observed the reconstruction of a full-sized model U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer in a remote part of a Western Chinese desert. The replicas included detailed structural components that have helped Beijing refine and advance its weapons guidance systems as it conducts target practice on these model U.S. destroyers. Additional satellite imagery recognized mock-up Taiwanese military bases used for missile testing, another indication the PRC is preparing for a prospective Pacific conflict. On the other side of the Taiwan Strait, Taipei is preemptively building its military up, with a record-breaking defense budget of $35 billion, three percent of the island’s GDP and an 18 percent increase from the previous year.
At its current volume, the U.S. weapons chest likely cannot support its efforts in both Iran and Taiwan — if Beijing were to launch an amphibious or aerial assault. Additionally, the current state of munitions could lessen Washington’s leverage in preventing the PRC from blockading the Taiwan Strait, playing into cross-strait calculations. Over one-fifth of global trade passes through the Strait, linking the region’s economies to the globe. Most importantly, Taiwan produces 70 percent of the world’s microchips and 90 percent of semiconductors, meaning the technology market hinges in Taiwan and their trade corridor. A blockade of the Taiwan Strait would almost certainly worsen the current global supply chain crisis that is currently being furthered by the unpredictable operations of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, that is not the only conflict in the region that U.S. military posture has kept at bay. The Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates North and South Korea has been policed by U.S. and South Korean troops since 1953. In addition to troops, the U.S. has provided critical military aid and deterrence tools under their Mutual Defense Treaty to keep peace on the Korean Peninsula. However, in the last few months, Washington has redeployed THAAD launcher and Patriot batteries to the Middle East due to equipment shortages driven by the Iran war. These systems are vital to Seoul’s defense as Pyongyang’s ballistic missile stockpile continues to grow exponentially. Without these critical elements of South Korea’s military infrastructure, the country could be left vulnerable to an aerial attack. The munitions crisis, thus, risks diplomatic friction with U.S. allies in the region and could change the calculus for attacks by aggressors.
Until the U.S. defense industrial base can catch up to the growing demand, the U.S. global military readiness, especially in Asia, will remain in question. While the munitions crisis is principally a national security concern, it also affects Washington’s diplomatic ties with Ukraine, South Korea, Japan, and NATO, which have grown accustomed to relying on U.S. military aid to defend themselves. Ultimately, the U.S. is largely overcommitted to defense causes and global conflicts that are straining its weapons stockpiles, and is disadvantaged by the amount of time it takes to manufacture the munitions needed to replenish them.