INTELBRIEF
August 25, 2026
The Wrong Approach to Dealing with North Korea
Bottom Line Up Front
- President Trump’s directive to reduce U.S. military exercises with South Korea has left Seoul and other Asian allies concerned about the dependability of the United States in the Indo-Pacific.
- It is unclear what prompted Trump to reengage with Kim Jong Un and North Korea, especially as Pyongyang’s relationship with Russia has only grown closer over the course of Moscow’s war with Ukraine.
- With the Iran war going poorly, many have speculated that Trump’s renewed interest in diplomacy with North Korea is his attempt to cement a crowning foreign policy achievement.
- One of the lessons of the past 25 years is that countries without nuclear weapons programs — Iraq, Libya, and Iran — are more vulnerable to being attacked by conventional military forces.
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the Department of Defense to reduce joint military exercises with South Korea, a longstanding American ally and a critical partner in the Indo-Pacific region. These joint military exercises have taken place since 1955, so even scaling them back is cause for concern among partners from Tokyo to Manila. Security cooperation and building partner capacity remain core components to U.S. objectives in Asia, but scaling down joint exercises is likely to have a direct impact on the military readiness of both the U.S. and its allies. Accordingly, the U.S. currently maintains a force of approximately 28,500 troops in South Korea, stationed near the demilitarized zone (DMZ), which demarcates the border with North Korea. Held under the auspices of Ulchi Freedom Shield, past exercises have included war games and simulations that could provide valuable lessons learned relevant for how a future conflict scenario could unfold. Similar lessons from war games simulating an Iran war scenario appear to have been ignored in the lead-up to war with Tehran.
Trump appeared frustrated with Seoul’s unwillingness to provide more assistance in the United States’ ongoing war with Iran. But the public haranguing of South Korea, which occurred in tandem with the President heaping praise on its nuclear-armed northern neighbor, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and its mercurial leader Kim Jong Un, left many Asian allies concerned about Washington’s dependability in both the short and long term. For some allies, it may be an opportune time to begin planning for what they see as the inevitability of a post-American world order. This is especially the case with regard to a rising China and Beijing’s continued military modernization. Since the start of the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran in late February, the U.S. has repositioned critical military assets in the Middle East, moving them out of the Indo-Pacific, at least for now.
Trump’s flattery of Kim Jong Un is reminiscent of his first term in office, when he openly swooned over what he called “love letters” between him and his counterpart in Pyongyang. However, attempts at diplomacy fell short, and the relationship eventually soured, with Kim maligning Trump as a “mentally deranged U.S. dotard.” Trump and Kim met in 2018 in Singapore and again in 2019 in Vietnam, although the talks broke down over what Kim perceived as Trump’s maximalist demands of complete denuclearization. It is unclear what has changed for Trump to once again seek some form of rapprochement. If anything, North Korea has grown even more hostile to the U.S. and its allies, going to great lengths to assist Russia in its ongoing war with Ukraine. Pyongyang has supplied Moscow with much-needed manpower and materiel, including munitions and ballistic missiles. In recent years, North Korea has also improved its relationship with China and worked more closely with Iran, including on missile cooperation.
To most observers, it seems highly unlikely, yet again, that any denuclearization agreement could be achieved. But according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has been pushing his aides to find a way to arrange a summit between him and the North Korean leader, with a strong preference for a meeting to take place before the end of the year. With the Iran war going poorly, many have speculated that Trump’s renewed interest in diplomacy with North Korea is his attempt to cement a crowning foreign policy achievement. Canceling the military exercises is Trump’s way of dangling an incentive before Kim, an attempt at a gesture of goodwill and perhaps a confidence-building measure that can offer something tangible in return for a willingness to talk. Trump recently revealed that he believes Pyongyang to be in possession of 57 nuclear weapons, as well as multiple delivery vehicle — a rare statement disclosing highly-sensitive information from a governmental official, nonetheless the President of the United States. Some experts, including Jeffrey Lewis, a leading authority on North Korea’s nuclear program, speculated that Pyongyang likely has an arsenal “in the low hundreds,” based on recent advances over the past decade.
One of the lessons of the past 25 years is that countries without nuclear weapons programs — Iraq, Libya, and Iran — are more vulnerable to being attacked by conventional military forces. Meanwhile, those countries that have broken the nuclear taboo, especially North Korea, have been insulated from such attacks. There is growing concern that one of the main takeaways of the Iran war will be for countries, including Iran itself, to reach the conclusion that the only path to maintaining control of one’s regime is to develop nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent. The proliferation of nuclear weapons and a worldwide arms race would be a disaster for global security and regional stability. These developments are occurring against the backdrop of a rapidly changing international system, which has seen alliances fray and longstanding norms erode.