April 20, 2026

SHARE |

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Holds, but Prospects for an Agreement Remain Uncertain

(AP Photo/Asghar Besharati)

A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which ends Wednesday unless extended, has largely held. But tensions are heightened over access to the Strait of Hormuz, making it unclear whether the two sides are close to a war-ending agreement or a restart of the fighting. Iranian leaders assess that their ability to stop Strait traffic provides substantial leverage by spiking global energy prices and depressing the world economy. President Trump and his team, by contrast, have sought to calm global markets and U.S. domestic tensions with highly optimistic assessments that an agreement with Iran on the Strait and other outstanding issues is imminent.

On Sunday, Trump set additional talks for Tuesday in Islamabad, suggesting he believes an accord is within reach, despite the tensions. But he has also threatened escalation, posting on his social media account that, if no agreement is reached, the U.S. will not only resume the fighting but escalate by implementing his prior threat to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure. There were conflicting reports in Iranian media whether Iran’s negotiators would attend new talks while the U.S. blockade of Iranian traffic through the Strait — put in place last week to counter Iran’s control over the Strait — remained in place. Hours after the Islamabad talks were announced, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy attacked an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman after it gave it “fair warning to stop,” adding that the Marines had “full custody” of the ship.

U.S. seizure of the ship in the Gulf of Oman, named the Touska, complicates the prospects for new talks, if they convene. But the sharp divisions among the remaining leaders of Iran’s regime also introduce further difficulties. Pragmatic leaders argue that a resumption of hostilities with the U.S. would be catastrophic. Hardline figures, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders who control key levers of power, see compromise with the U.S. as capitulation and a sellout of Iran’s Islamic revolution. Experts agree that there is no clearly identifiable overarching authority in Iran capable of resolving the internal debate. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who, according to U.S. intelligence officials, was severely injured in the same attack that killed his father and predecessor, has not been visible to the public or to Iranian government leaders since his selection on March 8.

Khamenei’s invisibility, coupled with the deaths of numerous figures in the security and political structures, has enabled the Speaker of Iran’s Majles (parliament), Mohammad Baqr Ghalibaf, to emerge as the de facto leader. Ghalibaf has long been associated with the IRGC, at one time serving as commander of its air force. Over the past two decades, he has served in elected civilian institutions, including in the Majles and as Tehran mayor, enabling him to build bridges with pragmatic leaders throughout Iran’s governing institutions. He has been the principal interlocutor with U.S. negotiators and would presumably again represent Iran in Islamabad, if Iran attends the session. A speech he delivered Saturday highlighted the vast disparity in Iranian and U.S. military capabilities, which experts read as a signal that Tehran needs to peacefully resolve its conflict with Washington. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance apparently will return as head of the U.S. team traveling to Islamabad.

The fate of new talks might depend on whether tensions ease over control of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. and Iranian officials acknowledge that any war-ending agreement will include a full and permanent opening of the chokepoint. On Friday, reflecting the intent of Iranian pragmatists to finalize an agreement with Washington, Araghchi publicly announced that the Strait is “completely open.” He conditioned the safe passage on the usage of routes along Iran’s coast, designated by Iranian maritime authorities. Global officials suspect Iran might be collecting fees (as much as $2 million per vessel) from ships that use that routing. His announcement was pilloried and later contradicted by IRGC-controlled media and hardline figures who do not want to cede the strategic leverage Iran has gained from controlling the Strait. Despite the contradictory signals from Tehran, Araghchi’s statement triggered an 11 percent drop in world oil prices on Friday.

The optimism generated by Araghchi quickly dissipated after Trump responded to the Iranian announcement by stating he would keep in place a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports until a final agreement with Iran is signed. The blockade, which prevents Iran from exporting 90 percent of its traded oil, has triggered substantial concern among Iranian civilian leaders who argue the already weak Iranian economy cannot withstand an enduring U.S. quarantine. But IRGC-linked hardliners, opposed to signaling any weakness or concession, sought to exercise countervailing pressure on Trump by announcing the Strait formally would again be closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade. Simultaneously, a UK naval monitoring organization said it had received reports that IRGC Navy fast-attack craft had fired on at least one commercial vessel en route to transit the Strait. Some reports indicated two Indian-flagged ships carrying Iraqi oil were struck by the IRGC Navy in the Strait.

Even if tensions over access to the Strait ease, it is difficult to discern from official statements whether other core U.S.-Iran differences will be resolved. Trump has often repeated that an agreement with Iran must ensure that it cannot develop a nuclear weapon, although experts argue several mechanisms are available to verifiably ensure Iran cannot become a nuclear state. The U.S. demands Iran suspend its enrichment of uranium for 20 years (or, according to Trump, indefinitely) and surrender its 450-kilogram stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium for dilution or reprocessing outside the country. On Friday, Trump claimed in a phone interview with CBS that Iran had “agreed to everything,” implying it had accepted these U.S positions. He asserted Iran would even agree to a joint U.S.-Iranian effort to remove the enriched uranium and reprocess it in the United States. On Sunday Fox News quoted Trump as saying he “expects Iran to sign an agreement in Pakistan” because “all items have now been negotiated.”

Ghalibaf’s official social media accounts denied Trump’s assertions, posting Friday: Trump "made 7 claims in 1 hour, ALL 7 are FALSE." Other official and semi-official Iranian outlets added that the two sides are not close to an agreement. On the nuclear file, Ghalibaf posted, specifically, "Iran's enriched uranium is not going to be transferred anywhere under any circumstances." The Iranian side added they had not acceded to U.S. demands on uranium enrichment, although reports indicate Tehran would be willing to suspend enrichment for a period of three to five years. U.S. officials, perhaps sensitive to the criticism that the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear deal provided Iran with significant sanctions relief, denied media reports they had agreed to unblock $20 billion in Iranian assets held outside Iran. The total of Iranian assets currently held abroad, for example, in Japanese and European banks, is not known from public sources, but it previously exceeded $100 billion.

Iranian negotiators reportedly have categorically rejected U.S. demands that Iran adopt limits on the ranges and numbers of its ballistic missile arsenal. And, Iranian leaders have opposed limitations on Tehran’s support to its Axis of Resistance partners, furthermore insisting that Trump apply the U.S.-Iran ceasefire to Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah as well. Iran’s pressure to end the fighting in Lebanon, which has coincided with the U.S.-Iran war, represents an effort to preserve Lebanese Hezbollah as a key deterrent, a power projection instrument, and an emblem of Iran’s resistance ideology. On Thursday, at Trump’s direction, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to a ten-day ceasefire with Hezbollah, and thousands of the more than 1 million displaced Lebanese began returning to their homes in south Lebanon. However, according to the agreement, Israel reserves the right to take military action, even during the ceasefire, "in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks." Israel has continued to attack some Hezbollah positions, adding risk to the broader U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Israel and Lebanon met Tuesday in Washington for their first direct talks since 1993, defying Hezbollah’s opposition to the meeting. The session publicly aligned Lebanon, Israel, and the United States in insisting that Hezbollah disarm and that Iran’s influence over Lebanon’s affairs ends.

While preparing for what they hope will be successful talks in Islamabad, Trump and his team are also signaling they are willing and able to return to battle if doing so is required to secure U.S. interests, made clear by the U.S. seizure of the Touska. Additional U.S. forces, including a second Marine Expeditionary Unit, continue to flow into the region, giving Trump additional options to open the Strait of Hormuz by force or undertake other missions. In an apparent effort to pressure Ghalibaf and other Iranian leaders, Trump told journalists Thursday that, unless an accord materializes by the April 22 expiration of the ceasefire, “Unfortunately, we’ll have to start dropping bombs again.” However, new U.S. intelligence estimates, quoted publicly on Sunday, indicate Iran might retain more than half its original arsenal of missiles, missile launchers, and drones. Experts assess that there is no clear pathway for either Tehran or Washington to achieve all its goals militarily, and that the pathway to a war-ending agreement is equally unclear.