September 22, 2025

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Prospects for Diplomacy Dim as Israel Expands Its Gaza Offensive

AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi

As the second anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack approaches, U.S. and regional diplomats are as pessimistic as ever that the conflict in Gaza can be brought to a conclusion. Israel’s failed strike on a meeting of Hamas leaders in Doha on September 9 appeared intended to — and did — derail ongoing diplomacy. The Israeli strike occurred as Hamas Political Bureau members, led by Khalil al-Hayya, were meeting to evaluate a U.S. proposal, which President Trump had said two days earlier was accepted by Israel, to exchange all remaining Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners and end the war. Qatar’s Amir, Shaykh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, backed by regional leaders at an emergency Arab-Islamic summit convened by Doha last week, accused Israel of “sabotaging” the ceasefire and hostage-release negotiations. Qatar has, at least temporarily, stepped back from further mediation efforts, although U.S. officials view the country as an indispensable mediator and are pressing its leaders to re-engage in the diplomacy.

Adding to the pessimism among global diplomats, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ignored appeals to cancel an Israeli military offensive against the main Hamas stronghold in Gaza City. Netanyahu has moved forward with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation in pursuit of a military solution in Gaza — the dismantlement of Hamas and the rescue of the remaining 48 hostages (living and deceased) — that IDF Chief-of-Staff Eyal Zamir reportedly argues is not possible. On Tuesday, after days of aerial attacks on purported Hamas command posts and other positions, the IDF began an advance on Gaza City neighborhoods. The Israeli military asserts that at least 2,000 Hamas militants remain in the city, and it has not given a specific timeline for the offensive. However, an IDF spokesman, Brigadier General Effie Defrin, said the operation would “last as long as necessary” to free the hostages and defeat Hamas, estimating that it would take “a number of months.”

The offensive is certain to worsen already desperate humanitarian conditions, but yet is unlikely to eliminate a Hamas insurgency or the group’s political and ideological influence in Gaza, the West Bank, and the broader region. The Israeli military said 350,000 Gaza City residents had heeded evacuation orders, but roughly half a million people are believed to still be sheltering in the city, parts of which have been leveled by airstrikes. The IDF ground maneuver into the city began the same day as a UN commission investigating the war said that Israel was committing genocide against Palestinians. Israel has vehemently denied the accusation, saying that the target of its military campaign is Hamas, not the Palestinian people.

Two years of Israeli operations have killed Hamas’ most well-known leaders in Gaza and disrupted the organizational structure of its military wing, “Qassam Brigades”, but experts note Hamas has adapted to the onslaught, positioning it to survive as an insurgency. It has transformed into smaller groupings of fighters, focused on digging in and using remaining tunnel systems and destroyed buildings as staging grounds for ambushes of Israeli soldiers. Wesam Afifa, the former executive director of Hamas’s Al Aqsa TV, told journalists: “On the ground, there are no longer fixed Hamas strongholds in the conventional military sense…What remains today are small, mobile resistance cells fighting in guerrilla style.” Some experts assess that, even if Israel vanquishes the group, its ideology — that armed resistance is required to force Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territory — is virtually certain to survive the war, even if Hamas itself disarms.

On the other hand, signs have appeared that Netanyahu is trying to craft a “day after” in Gaza, relying on Palestinians he characterizes as “neither Hamas nor the (West Bank-based) Palestinian Authority (PA).” U.S. and Arab leaders support a postwar power structure based on a PA return to Gaza, but Netanyahu and his allies have steadfastly resisted PA rule in Gaza as paving the way for an independent Palestinian state. Instead, Israeli leaders are trying to empower local armed groups to challenge Hamas’ authority and battle its militia forces. Some of these rival armed groups reportedly have ties to the PA and its dominant Fatah faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Anti-Hamas armed factions, including the Abu Shabab group, reportedly have tacit approval from the IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) to remain in an IDF-protected zone in Gaza City while benefiting from a safe corridor for humanitarian assistance. The faction reportedly has exchanged fire with Hamas in recent weeks. Another group, the Tarabin clan, operates primarily in southern Gaza. Other clans, including the Shawish, Baraka, and Abu Tir, have refrained from combat against Hamas to date and instead focus on winning popular support by offering shelter to displaced Gaza civilians. Some Israeli strategists view the expanding influence of the anti-Hamas armed faction as a potential turning point in Israel’s efforts to weaken Hamas’s hold on the Gaza Strip. However, few experts see the Israeli empowerment of local armed factions as able to displace Hamas permanently or provide the enduring stability needed to rebuild the enclave.

As the Israeli offensive unfolds, the families of Israeli hostages, global and regional officials, and experts continue to look to President Trump and his team to use U.S. leverage to bring the war to an end. Critics of Trump’s policy express disappointment at the Trump team’s seeming unwillingness or inability to steer the Israeli government away from pursuing a military solution to the conflict. On Friday, Trump seemed to back Netanyahu’s approach by indicating the Gaza offensive might yet rescue the remaining hostages. He stated: “[The Israeli hostages] might be (freed)…Maybe they’ll be free because… [in] war a lot of strange things happen, a lot of results take place that you never think were going to happen.” His statements compounded regional pessimism, coming one day after the U.S. vetoed a crucial UN Security Council resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza. The resolution, approved by 14 of the 15 members of the council on Thursday, called for an “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in Gaza respected by all parties”, the release of all captives held by Hamas and other groups, and a lifting of restrictions on humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Still, even as Trump seemingly gives Netanyahu free rein to attack in Gaza and the broader region, his team continues to keep diplomacy alive. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio added a visit to Qatar, after his meetings in Israel, to shore up U.S.-Qatar relations following the Israeli strike as well as encourage Doha to stay engaged in Gaza diplomacy. U.S. officials view Qatari and Egyptian mediation as vital to encouraging Hamas to accept the compromises needed to end the fighting. Before proceeding to Qatar, Rubio stated: “Obviously, [Qatar has]to decide if [it wants to continue mediating in Gaza] after last week or not, but we want [Qatar] to know that if there’s any country in the world that could help end this through a negotiation, it’s Qatar.” He added that, with Israel’s push on Gaza City beginning, there is just a “short window” remaining to secure a ceasefire. An official U.S. readout of Rubio’s meeting Tuesday with Qatar’s Amir Shaykh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani stated that Rubio “reaffirmed the strong bilateral relationship between the United States and Qatar, and [he] thanked Qatar for its efforts to end the war in Gaza and bring all hostages home.” Reflecting the region’s vocal criticism of the Israeli strike on Doha, the readout added that: “The Secretary reiterated America’s strong support for Qatar’s security and sovereignty, and discussed our shared commitment to a safer, more stable region.” Axios media reported Saturday that Amir Tamim is requesting, as a condition of resuming its mediation efforts, that Israel issue an apology for the Doha strike, pay compensation to the family of a Qatari security guard killed by the strike, and pledge not to violate Qatar’s sovereignty in the future.

As Israel’s offensive proceeds, the major question for global officials is whether talks might restart and reach an agreement before Israel’s offensive advances further. Qatari officials have said the Israeli strike on Doha will not cause Qatar to abandon its mediation efforts. Still, there are no reports of any formal ceasefire talks underway, either brokered by it, Egypt, or the U.S. Even if talks resume, there are no clear indications that either Hamas or Israeli leaders are ready to abandon their longstanding objectives. Hamas continues to reject proposals requiring it to disarm, and Israel continues to insist on Hamas’ elimination as a political and military force in Gaza. Prospects for a settlement remain bleak. Yesterday, several major industrialized nations, including the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada, announced the recognition of an independent Palestinian state in advance of UN General Assembly (UNGA) meetings in New York this week. Other countries, including France, are expected to follow suit. This issue divided President Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer during his state visit to the UK last week. Asked about the UK’s intent to recognize a Palestinian state, Trump said: “I don’t think you can talk about a Palestinian state when they’re still holding innocent people,” calling the issue a point of “disagreement” with Starmer.