September 11, 2025

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Twenty-Four Years After 9/11, What is the State of the Global Terrorism?

AP Photo

24 years after the al-Qaeda terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the global jihadist movement spawned by Osama bin Laden remains a threat, although it has evolved considerably in the nearly two and a half decades since 9/11. Al-Qaeda is back in Afghanistan, enjoying the safe haven and sanctuary provided by the Afghan Taliban, which took the country back in August 2021. As noted by this summer’s UN Monitoring Team report, al-Qaeda's “appetite for external operations had increased.” Even with a somewhat reduced operational capacity, al-Qaeda's intent to strike the West persists, and several of its affiliates—al-Shabaab in Somalia, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), and Jam’at Nusrat ul-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)--are all serious threats to local, regional, and international security. And while al-Qaeda core remains hobbled by the attrition of its senior leadership, some of which is still believed to be based in Iran, including its de facto head Saif al-Adel, taking this organization or any of its regional branches for granted is a recipe for disaster. A similar level of complacency was evident in the way that Israel viewed Hamas, which launched a devastating terrorist attack on October 7, 2023 that killed more than 1,200 Israelis and plunged the Middle East into a conflict which continues to the current day.  

Al-Qaeda managed to survive the upheaval that accompanied the Arab Spring while also weathering the storm brought about by the rise of the Islamic State. But, just as al-Qaeda pursued a franchising strategy that decentralized its organization globally, so too has the Islamic State developed its own regional branches, several of which remain highly active. Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), its Afghan affiliate, is reminiscent of AQAP in the 2010s, demonstrating a relentless intent to conduct external operations (EXOPS). Last year, ISKP launched successful attacks in Iran, Türkiye, and Russia, and had several plots in Europe disrupted, including a plot against the Paris Olympics and another targeting a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, Austria. Concert venues and sporting events will remain attractive targets for terrorist groups due to their propaganda value and potential for mass casualties. Hardening soft targets remains a perpetual challenge for governments, security services, and counterterrorism authorities at the local, state, and federal levels.  

Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) continue to run roughshod over large swaths of the Sahel, occasionally clashing with al-Qaeda affiliates in the region, while also destabilizing governments from littoral West Africa to the Lake Chad Basin. Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) and affiliates in Somalia and Mozambique are also highly active and have turned sub-Saharan Africa into the epicenter of jihadist terrorism. Russian mercenaries have been engaged to coup-proof regimes in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, though in most cases, the Wagner Group, and now Africa Corps, have only exacerbated the terrorism problem, conducing scorched earth counterinsurgency operations that push local populations into the arms of jihadists, helping them to recruit new members.  

While the New Year’s Day attack in New Orleans was an unwelcome reminder of the danger posed by homegrown violent extremists radicalized by jihadist propaganda, on balance, the shift away from counterterrorism toward great power competition has continued unabated. Though, to be fair, the Trump Administration has remained aggressive in targeting both al-Shabaab and Islamic State Somalia (IS-S), as well as al-Qaeda-linked militants in Syria belonging to Hurras al-Din. The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, Israel’s nearly two-year military campaign against Iran and its Axis of Resistance in the Middle East, and now a focus on combating drug cartels and criminal gangs in Mexico, Central America, and South America, including Venezuela, complicate efforts to focus on jihadist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. After all, personnel, manpower, and resources are finite. The counterterrorism community is also undergoing a significant downsizing. Last month, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard announced that she was reducing her office’s staff by 40 percent after stating that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) was “bloated and inefficient.” There have also been major cuts to programs designed to prevent and counter violent extremism across the interagency.  

One of the major challenges facing counterterrorism officials is that, with the proliferation of emerging technologies, there has been a lowering of the barriers to entry for violent non-state actors to utilize some of these tools, including artificial intelligence, unmanned aerial systems (drones), additive manufacturing (3-D printing), encryption, and virtual currencies, to name just a few. Moreover, terrorist groups continue to pursue weapons of mass destruction, including chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high-yield explosives (CBRNE). There is also an array of terrorist and insurgent groups that have continued to invest in improving their ability to conduct cyber attacks and sabotage.  

In addition to Sunni jihadist groups, the United States and its allies must also contend with a growing threat post by Shia extremists and other groups operating under the umbrella of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, including Iraqi militia groups, the Houthis in Yemen, and others. After the U.S launched Operation Midnight Hammer, attacking Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and supporting Israel’s 12-Day war, there were concerns that Tehran could seek to retaliate by activating Hezbollah sleeper cells on American soil. Those concerns remain, as Iran has historically played the long game and maintained a global network of terrorist cells that have attacked tourists, cultural institutions, and U.S. military bases overseas. The ongoing war in Gaza will continue to have a radicalizing effect on individuals worldwide, including many in the West.  

The global terrorist threat landscape is in constant flux, and threats also abound from far-left extremists, far-right terrorists, violent misogynists known as ‘Incels,’ technophobes (neo-Luddites), deranged conspiracy theorists, and nihilistic violent extremists, a relatively new category now on the radar of the FBI, and defined as “individuals who engage in criminal conduct within the United States and abroad, in furtherance of political, social, or religious goals that derive primarily from a hatred of society at large and a desire to bring about its collapse by sowing indiscriminate chaos, destruction, and social instability.” There is a clear overlap here with other ideological streams, including accelerationists, anarchists, and anti-government extremists.