October 21, 2025

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Washington Continues to Push for Diplomatic End to Russia’s War in Ukraine

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited U.S. President Trump in Washington to press for long-range “Tomahawk” cruise missiles, as Ukraine faces renewed pressure from Russia in the nearly four-year war. While U.S. relations with Ukraine had  initially soured when President Trump took office earlier this year, they began  to improve this summer as Trump and Zelenskyy engaged in a number of diplomatic meetings. However, last Friday’s meeting turned sideways before Zelenskyy even arrived at the White House, when Trump held a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

During the call, Putin allegedly demanded that Kyiv surrender full control of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine as a condition for ending the war. Putin also floated a modified plan under which Russia would retain the entirety of Donetsk (and thereby Donbas) in exchange for offering the partial return or freezing of frontlines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. This is unlikely in practice, however, since the two territories form a land-bridge to Crimea, which Russia captured in 2014. According to Reuters, Putin also told Trump that supplying these “Tomahawk” missiles to Ukraine would represent a “qualitatively new stage of escalation” and could “destroy” bilateral relations between the two. As a result of this diplomatic push from Putin, Zelenskyy was unable to secure the long-range missiles from Trump needed in his campaign against Moscow.

Speaking from Air Force One over the weekend, President Trump said to Zelenskyy: "Let it be cut the way it is. It's cut up right now. I think 78 percent of the land is already taken by Russia. You leave it the way it is right now," in reference to the Donbas region. "They can negotiate something later on down the line. But I said cut and stop at the battle line. Go home. Stop fighting, stop killing people." The Russians have continued their unrelenting missile and drone bombardment of infrastructure and civilian targets in Ukraine, in direct violation of international law. President Zelenskyy remarked that he was open to meeting with Putin and Trump in Budapest, Hungary, at a proposed summit, if the invitation was extended. Zelenskyy has long maintained opposition to ceding any Ukrainian territory to Russia.

Zelenskyy’s supposed confidence regarding the Tomahawk missiles prior to his meeting in Washington likely stemmed from weeks of promising backchannel diplomacy. Throughout late summer, U.S. defense officials had quietly expanded intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and authorized additional artillery and drone support. Kyiv interpreted this as a prelude to broader weapons cooperation — particularly after reports from Reuters and the Wall Street Journal claimed that the U.S. was “weighing” whether to send Kyiv “powerful” missiles. Critics of the American strategy have lambasted the U.S. for its incremental approach, although U.S. national security officials describe the strategy of piecemeal provision of high-tech weaponry to the Ukrainians as one of escalation management with the Kremlin. Ukraine has already demonstrated, including with its innovative approach to using drones in combat, that its military can achieve a lot with even a modicum of resources.

However, Putin’s direct call to Trump just before Zelenskyy’s arrival in the U.S. appeared to shift the president’s stance. This reversal came despite Trump’s mounting frustration with Moscow throughout the summer, during which he publicly criticized Putin for prolonging the war in Ukraine and threatened secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian oil. The much-ballyhooed summit in Alaska in August between Trump and Putin also failed to achieve any tangible results. Having recently claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, Trump may have found Putin’s warnings of escalation persuasive, opting instead to pursue de-escalation and preserve his image as a dealmaker.

Indeed, providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would almost certainly escalate the conflict on the battlefield, where front lines have largely stabilized, despite an ongoing Russian offensive which kicked off in earnest over the summer. The Russian military is expending enormous amounts of resources, with relatively little territorial gain to show for it in return. The Economist estimates that this year alone, Russia may have lost upwards of 100,000 men in the conflict, a staggering figure. And while Ukraine is facing manpower shortages, which constrains what it can do on the battlefield, Kyiv’s use of drones for surveillance and the impact of long-range precision weaponry has made it nearly impossible for Moscow to mass forces on the front lines. According to the Institute for Study of War (ISW), Russian forces have shifted toward attrition tactics — small, grinding advances supported by heavy artillery and drone swarms — intended to exhaust Ukraine’s defenses rather than achieve a decisive breakthrough.

Despite the grinding nature of this war, Moscow appears increasingly confident in its long-term position. Russian forces have fortified control over occupied regions and are preparing for the winter by targeting Ukraine’s energy grid and infrastructure. ISW reports that Russian strategy has pivoted towards consolidating territorial gains rather than pursuing new offensives or sweeping maneuvers, preferring to consolidate and exhaust rather than to gamble on major breakthroughs. In parallel, Russia is tightening administrative control in occupied territories — issuing Russian passports, switching to the Ruble as currency, and integrating these territories’ political, legal, and economic institutions into the Russian state apparatus — aiming to make it incredibly costly to reverse their occupation.

Beyond the battlefield, Russia is conducting a hybrid war against NATO that has escalated in recent months. Western intelligence indicates a coordinated campaign of sabotage, espionage, and disinformation across Europe. Unidentified drones — which are widely believed to be Russian — have been spotted over Poland, Denmark, and Norway, prompting air defense alerts and NATO. These sightings coincide with a wider uptick in hybrid activity, including GPS jamming in the Baltic region. While many analysts view these operations as Moscow’s attempt to probe NATO’s readiness and political cohesion, several European leaders, like Polish Foreign Minister Rados?aw Sikorski, warn that the Kremlin may be preparing for the next phase of its war — one that could extend beyond Ukraine’s borders.

In light of Europe’s escalating confrontation with Russia and renewed hybrid threats, Zelenskyy had turned to his European allies for assistance following his unsuccessful meeting with Trump. Reports have indicated that Zelenskyy will travel to London for a meeting on Friday with the “coalition of the willing,” a coalition of mostly European countries that have alleged commitment to supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. Zelenskyy announced on X yesterday that his London visit is focused on obtaining security guarantees for Kyiv, indicating there would be “many meetings and negotiations in Europe” this week. One of those meetings could potentially include a European Council meeting in Brussels on Thursday. Part of the meeting will discuss financial support to Ukraine, including a new $163 billion loan to Ukraine which would be funded by frozen Russian assets. While European financial assistance is instrumental to Ukrainian defense, in terms of scale, variety and rapid deployment, Europe is simply not able to match the U.S. in ability to provide advanced offensive military equipment.

Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington underscores the complexities of Trump’s shifting diplomatic stance and its impact on the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. His failure to secure long-range Tomahawk missiles marks a major setback for Kyiv, particularly as Russia intensifies its operations across Europe. Therefore, much will depend on Trump and Putin’s (and possibly Zelenskyy’s) proposed meeting in Budapest.