INTELBRIEF
October 14, 2025
Trump Visits the Region to Advance His Gaza Peace Plan
Bottom Line up Front
- Hamas’ release of the remaining 20 living Israeli hostages on Monday fueled global optimism that the war in Gaza is ending, but major disagreements over postwar governance and security persist.
- A Trump-led summit meeting in Egypt on Monday affirmed broad support for Trump’s 20 Point Peace Plan for Gaza, but did not significantly advance more ambitious U.S. or regional goals, such as the establishment of a Palestinian state and forging additional Arab normalization agreements with Israel.
- A U.S. decision to lead a military coordination center to monitor the Gaza ceasefire is intended to attract regional and global participation in the security arrangements needed to stabilize postwar Gaza.
- Hamas’ refusal to agree to disarm threatens to unravel the Trump peace plan and set conditions for a restart of the Gaza war.
President Trump’s 20 Point Plan to settle the conflict in Gaza has cleared several of its initial hurdles, and its first phase has been implemented, including the release of the remaining 20 living Israeli hostages and an initial four of the 28 deceased Israelis. On Monday, as Trump visited Israel and nearly two dozen regional and global leaders convened in Egypt, the ceasefire that began on Friday was holding. Israeli forces have completed an initial withdrawal, and tens of thousands of Gaza Palestinians returned to their homes, which in many cases were destroyed or severely damaged. Israel implemented its commitment to release nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, of which 250 were serving life sentences for acts of violence against Israelis. Mediators overcame several last-minute disputes, including a rift over Hamas demands — which were not met — that several major Palestinian leaders, including Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine Leader Ahmad Saadat, be released. However, Trump’s trip produced no agreements on the core postwar provisions of the Trump plan. Despite Trump’s assertions that the “war is over,” many global officials and regional experts are hesitant to assess that a tense Gaza ceasefire will prove more than temporary.
As Trump’s meetings convened in Israel and Egypt, the Gaza ceasefire was holding, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza had already begun to ease. Gazan markets reopened in locations where there had been active fighting. On Saturday, Olga Cherevko, a spokesperson for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, stated: “We’re ready to implement our plan with the increase of aid as soon as possible…We hope it will start imminently.” The United Nations and other humanitarian groups have begun increasing humanitarian deliveries, and they are expected to eventually be able to flood Gaza with 400-600 aid trucks after finalizing distribution logistics and resolving other concerns.
Trump’s visit to Israel — which began just hours after the release of the Israeli hostages — sought primarily to maintain Israeli support for implementation of his Gaza plan. The brief visit, marked by a speech to the Israeli Knesset (parliament), appeared focused on preventing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from restarting the Gaza war. Positive Israeli reactions to his visit and his speech seemed to reaffirm that Trump can wield substantial leverage over Netanyahu not to contradict U.S. policy — not only on Gaza, but potentially also on Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and other issues.
In Egypt, Trump sought to translate the Gaza deal into support for a broader vision of Middle East peace, stability, and greater economic integration with the U.S. and its Western partners. In Sharm el-Sheikh, Trump co-chaired, along with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, a meeting of 27 regional and world leaders or their high-ranking representatives. The meeting centered on a signing ceremony for the Gaza peace plan by Trump and the other guarantors of the deal: Egypt, Qatar, and Türkiye. Among the other Arab leaders attending were Jordan’s King Abdullah, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, and the leaders/senior officials of the Arab Gulf states. Also attending were leaders from Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Norway, Hungary, Japan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, India, and Canada. Two other large Muslim-majority states — Pakistan and Indonesia — attended, and the latter has reportedly pledged forces for the planned peacekeeping unit in Gaza.
However, the Sharm el-Sheikh summit seemed largely devoid of substance, with few details, such as pledges of forces for the plan’s international peacekeeping unit in Gaza or funds for Gaza reconstruction, announced. Arab leaders used the meeting to highlight their insistence that only the establishment of an independent Palestinian state could ensure lasting peace. But the absence of Netanyahu from the meeting, coupled with his opposition to a Palestinian state, precluded any movement on Trump’s broader objective: “tee[ing] up a wider movement toward normalization” with Israel in the region, according to a U.S. official. Trump had, at the last minute, sought Netanyahu’s participation, but opposition from Türkiye and other leaders to his inclusion prompted the prime minister to decline the invitation, citing a religious holiday.
The summit meeting also reflected many of the disputes that had long prevented the resolution of the Gaza conflict. Hamas political leaders, whom Arab leaders and Türkiye pressured to accept the Trump deal, were not invited. Despite opposition from Israel, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas was invited and attended. Still, the meeting in Egypt produced no evident softening of Netanyahu’s rejection of a central PA role in postwar Gaza governance. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian was invited after Iran publicly backed the Trump plan, even though its acceptance statement expressed skepticism that Israel would uphold its commitments. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi explained that Iran had declined to attend the meeting because, referring to Trump policy, Iran cannot “…engage with counterparts who have attacked the Iranian people and continue to threaten and sanction us.” Despite Iran’s boycott of the meeting, Trump reiterated his offer to Iran to negotiate a settlement of the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program, while also implying the June Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear program have deprived Tehran of leverage in any new talks.
In advance of Trump’s trip, the centrality of direct U.S. involvement in implementing the Gaza peace plan was reflected in an announcement last week that it would assign 200 U.S. military personnel to an active coordinating role in postwar Gaza. The forces will run a Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), reporting to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), that will serve as a hub for military, political, and aid experts to help coordinate everything from humanitarian assistance to security support and the execution of the ceasefire agreement. The forces will not conduct peacekeeping operations inside Gaza, according to a statement from CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper. Also serving in the center will be soldiers from nations in the region, including Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye, and the UAE. The first of the 200 U.S. troops – mostly military planners and specialists in logistics, security and other support fields — have already arrived in Israel. Trump and his team calculated that U.S. leadership of the center would signal U.S. investment in the Gaza peace process and motivate regional and global governments to donate forces to the planned Gaza stabilization force.
Trump’s two regional stops seemingly made no progress at addressing the most significant vulnerability in the Trump plan — the requirement that Hamas disarm. The failure, thus far, of Gaza mediators to resolve that outstanding issue fuels skepticism among experts and officials that the Gaza war has finally ended. One prominent Hamas political figure, Mohammed Nedhal said on Sunday: "For Hamas, weapons are linked to the existence of the occupation, and any call to disarm, set aside, or keep them, if it means stripping the resistance of them, is rejected." Other Hamas leaders, including high-ranking leaders of its Political Bureau, assert Hamas will maintain its militia force in order to integrate it into a Palestinian security force serving a future independent Palestinian state. Hamas’ insistence, however, on retaining its weapons might deter regional and global leaders from contributing troops to the planned peacekeeping unit out of concern their contingents would be drawn into unwanted battles with the group. Also, the survival of Hamas’ military wing in Gaza risks triggering Netanyahu to restart the conflict to complete his oft-stated goal to eliminate the organization as a political and military force in Gaza.
Hamas’ intent to remain armed was reflected in its recall of as many as 7,000 members of its security forces to reassert control over areas of Gaza recently vacated by Israeli troops, according to local sources. The group also appointed five new governors, all with military backgrounds, some of whom previously commanded brigades in its armed wing. Reports from Gaza suggest armed Hamas units have already deployed across several districts, some wearing civilian clothes and others in the blue uniforms of the Gaza police. The Hamas media office denied it was deploying "fighters in the streets," asserting instead the group’s police force was seeking to keep order amid the destruction and chaos left in the wake of Israel’s redeployment. However, observers reported that Hamas had mobilized its militia fighters, at least in part, to battle clans and families that had sought to take advantage of Hamas’ weakness to challenge its armed control in Gaza. Numerous reports indicated the group had begun striking rival forces, including one in eastern Rafah led by Yasser Abu Shabab, and another in Khan Younis under Hussam al-Astal. In recent weeks, footage circulating online suggested a third militia was active in Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya, in northern Gaza, reportedly led by Ashraf al-Mansi, a Gaza City resident. The unsettled security situation in Gaza not only threatens to draw Israel back into battle there but also portends Gaza’s evolution into a lawless, ungoverned space unlikely to attract the global investment needed to rebuild the enclave.