October 1, 2025

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Does the Sahel Pose a Transnational Terror Threat?

(AP Photo/Sam Metz)

In late February, Moroccan counterterrorism authorities arrested a dozen people accused of planning attacks on behalf of the Islamic State’s (IS) Sahel branch. The plot reportedly involved the remote detonation of explosive devices across Morocco. Raids across the country led to the confiscation by authorities of flags used by IS, cash, and weapons, including nail bombs, dynamite, guns, and knives. Morocco said the network called itself “the Lions of the Caliphate in the Maghreb” and was taking direction from Islamic State’s Sahel Province (ISSP) commanders.

These counterterrorism operations were carried out amidst a rise in ISSP-linked arrests in North Africa in the past months. IS’s Sahel branch is conventionally viewed as more regionally focused – operating mainly in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger – compared to other IS provinces. However, the spate of recent raids and foiled plots indicates the potential threat of ISSP-linked inspired or guided plots and external operations. This likewise fits with the emerging trend of IS’s external operations coming from a broader range of vectors, including its networks in Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Somalia. IS-Sahel may be emerging as a branch more eager and capable of conducting successful external operations, spurring guided attacks, and inspiring violence abroad.

Despite having much less insurgent capacity and territory compared to its rival, the Sahel’s al-Qaeda-affiliated group Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), ISSP has emerged as a formidable entity in the global and African jihadist landscape, leveraging sophisticated strategies to internationalize its operations and expand its reach. By focusing on propaganda, recruitment, and diversified financing activities, ISSP is expanding its influence beyond its traditional and emerging strongholds. The Sahel branch benefits from the IS network structure being more globally integrated than other violent non-state actor groups through its General Directorate of Provinces (GDP). This international administrative system coordinates operations across its various provinces. The latest United Nations Security Council (UNSC) monitoring report noted the GDP’s Al-Furqan office, which oversees West Africa, “has grown in both importance and capability” while “establishing cells and facilitation networks in northwest Nigeria and facilitating Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP)”. The report states that ISWAP is providing greater support to ISSP as directed by IS core leadership, which includes collaboration on propaganda content creation and personnel exchange.

The UNSC’s new monitoring report highlighted a surge in ISSP activity aimed at consolidating and expanding its area of operations in the border regions between Niger and Nigeria. It also noted that the Lakurawa insurgent group pledged allegiance to ISSP and is key to its ambitions to shift activities towards the north-west border of Nigeria. An expanded footprint in the region could enable greater logistical and operational ties with ISWAP. Such developments may broaden ISSP’s recruitment base and insurgent capabilities. ISSP utilizes propaganda as a vital tool for disseminating its ideology and recruiting supporters worldwide. Through well-crafted messages, often disseminated via social media and encrypted communication platforms, the group has reached audiences across linguistic and cultural barriers. ISSP has been able to attract foreign fighters to its ranks and often makes a concerted effort to show them off in its propaganda videos.

In early August, ISSP released a 13-minute video, which was largely a show of force, featuring intense combat clips from a selection of recent raids and ambushes. Analysts pointed out notable features in the production, such as the first video evidence of ISSP using an armoured vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED), the possible presence of Lakurawa fighters, and several foreign recruits. The video has gained notable traction in online IS spaces, being shared across platforms and applications.

The escalating activities of IS-Sahel, driven by expanded transnational networks and enhanced online propaganda efforts, present a threat to Europe. The group's strategic use of online platforms facilitates the recruitment of foreign fighters and the dissemination of extremist ideologies, thereby enhancing its operational capabilities and influence. With the Sahel region in close proximity to Europe, particularly near southern European nations such as Spain, there exists an increased risk of cross-border terrorism activities. Established networks and routes across the Mediterranean can facilitate the movement of fighters and resources, with indications that IS-Sahel is becoming more ambitious in conducting external operations. The ambitions to inspire or execute attacks abroad underscore a strategic intent that elevates the threat level to European nations, which can be strategically targeted through ISSP’s transnational networks and supporters across the continent.

Moreover, IS-Sahel's growing support from the Al-Furqan office bolsters its propaganda and operational reach, enhancing its ability to train and send operatives and guide supporters in carrying out attacks. This increased capability poses a direct threat to government, security, diplomatic, and tourism targets in Morocco and neighboring areas, as well as throughout Europe, in part via its networks extending into Spain. The potential for attacks against European interests necessitates heightened security measures and diplomatic responses from European countries, which must balance safeguarding border security, intelligence operations, and economic stability with potential tourism disruptions. As IS-Sahel's international operational ambition grows, a coordinated international response is imperative, involving intelligence, military, and diplomatic cooperation to effectively address and mitigate the threats posed to European security and interests.

Contextually, Africa holds particular and increasing importance for IS in the post-Caliphate era, serving as a fertile ground for expanding influence and bolstering operational capabilities. As the group's territorial hold in Iraq and Syria was rolled back, Africa emerged as a crucial battleground to sustain the momentum of its global jihadist agenda. The continent's vast ungoverned spaces, coupled with socio-economic grievances and ethno-religious tensions, provide fertile ground for exploitation by violent Islamists seeking to establish footholds in underserved regions. ISSP's presence in the Sahel is opportunistically leveraged to expand operations further afield, tapping into existing conflicts and fractured political environments.

The significance of Africa for IS cannot be understated. The continent's geopolitical dynamics, characterized by chronic instability and a weak state apparatus, present an opportunity for ISSP to exploit vulnerabilities, establish footholds, and lay the groundwork for future operations. The region's interconnected ethnic and tribal frameworks further facilitate cross-border ties, creating networks that transcend national boundaries. By integrating into local power dynamics and conflicts, ISSP seeks to embed itself within societal fabrics, forging alliances and cultivating dependencies that enhance its long-term sustainability. Africa's geographic position provides strategic depth for planning and executing operations that could extend beyond the continent, targeting Western nations. By establishing itself firmly in Africa, IS not only consolidates a new base of operations but also maintains a platform from which to project influence and orchestrate transnational terror activities in line with the group's vision of a global jihadist movement.

Lucas Webber is a Research Fellow at the Soufan Center, Senior Intelligence Analyst at Tech Against Terrorism, and Co-Founder of the Militant Wire research network.