November 3, 2025

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Lebanon’s Fragile Balance Threatened by Israeli Strikes on Hezbollah

AP Photo/Mohammad Zaatari

In Lebanon, as in Gaza, what global and regional officials thought was a clear-cut and readily implementable ceasefire has devolved into mutual accusations of violations and ill intent by the warring parties and their allies. And, in both cases, Iran-backed factions at war with Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively, reject ceasefire requirements that they disarm, citing distrust of Israel’s pledges to withdraw from territory it continues to occupy. In Lebanon, multiple red lines of the major stakeholders — the governments of Lebanon and of Israel, and the Hezbollah organization‚ have been crossed. Over the past week, Israeli strikes and incursions in Lebanon, including against Hezbollah strongholds far from the Lebanon-Israel border, have prompted some Lebanese leaders to accuse Washington of adopting Israel’s interpretations of the terms of the November 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire wholesale and excusing Israel’s violations.

Yet, Gaza and Lebanon also exhibit sharp contrasts, with significant consequences for the trajectory of peace and security in the Middle East region. Lebanese Hezbollah’s membership is almost entirely composed of Lebanese Shias, a community that constitutes a plurality, but not a majority, in Lebanon. Other communities, including Maronite Christians and Sunni Muslims, occupy the top two spots in Lebanon’s government, which commands a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) that is the only duly constituted national force assigned to protect the entire Lebanese population. But, insisting that the LAF exercise a monopoly of armed force threatens to bring the LAF into an unwanted conflict with Hezbollah’s military wing, which is armed and heavily subsidized by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Hamas, by contrast, has faced little political or military pressure from rivals inside the Gaza Strip since it forcibly expelled the rival Palestinian Authority’s dominant Fatah faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in 2007. And, Trump officials have open channels of communication to and influence over Lebanon’s leaders, whereas only Arab and regional officials in Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye — and not Washington — seem to hold sway over Hamas.

Over the past ten days, the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, the even more fragile Lebanese political balance, and Washington-Beirut relations have been roiled by Israeli escalation against the group. Israeli leaders are determined to prevent Hezbollah, severely damaged by Israeli air and ground action last fall, from regrouping and rearming. Israel’s attacks seem intended to signal Lebanese leaders that Israel can set off panic and distress within Lebanon if Beirut reneges on its pledge to take away Hezbollah’s arsenal. Israel, backed by Washington, insists that the LAF disarm Hezbollah not only in areas south of the Litani River, but throughout all Lebanese territory. Doing so, the U.S. and Israel argue, would enable Beirut to exercise its writ nationwide and prevent Hezbollah from embroiling the Lebanese people in a war with Israel that the government did not authorize. Hezbollah’s actions in 2006 and following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel provoked conflicts with Israel that resulted in many deaths among Lebanese non-combatants and significant destruction of civilian infrastructure.

In an effort to pressure the Lebanese government to follow through on its August commitment to U.S. officials to disarm the group, on October 23, Israel struck Hezbollah positions in the Bekaa Valley, areas of eastern Lebanon far from the border. Two were killed in the strike, which Israel claimed, without providing evidence, targeted Hezbollah infrastructure, including training camps belonging to the group's elite Radwan Force. That strike messaged not only Beirut but Washington, as well, to move faster on Hezbollah disarmament; the attack occurred as U.S. Major General Joseph Clearfield, recently appointed to fill the U.S. position as head of the ceasefire monitoring committee, began a visit to Beirut. Last Thursday, Israel conducted an armed incursion into the southern border town of Blida that killed a municipal worker (non-combatant). In October alone, Israeli strikes killed more than 20 people in Lebanon, according to the country’s Ministry of Public Health. On Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed it had carried out another strike overnight, killing a senior Radwan Force official and three other force members. Announcing the strike, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz posted on X on Sunday that “Hezbollah is playing with fire and the Lebanese President is dragging his feet” on disarming the group’s militia.

The Israeli attacks have put Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun in a difficult position between Washington, Israel, Hezbollah, and the Lebanese population broadly. Aoun asserts the LAF cannot succeed in disarming Hezbollah unless Washington persuades Israel to cease violating the truce and to withdraw from five elevated south Lebanon vantage points (the “Five Heights”) it has refused thus far to vacate. Launching a broadside at the Trump team for failing to restrain Israel, Aoun pointedly noted the Blida attack took place shortly after a meeting of the ceasefire committee monitoring, which was chaired by the visiting U.S. Special Envoy to Lebanon, Morgan Ortagus. The Lebanese President publicly urged the monitoring committee to go beyond recording violations and to press Israel to halt its breaches of Lebanese sovereignty.

Amidst the Israeli strikes, Aoun reinforced his messaging to both Israel and the U.S. by issuing a statement, during a meeting with his successor as the Commander of the LAF, Brigadier General Rodolphe Haykal, that he had ordered the LAF to “confront any Israeli incursion into liberated southern territory, in defense of Lebanese territory and the safety of citizens.” That order, although unlikely to be implemented, signaled Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that a failure to contain Israel might collapse the U.S.-brokered ceasefire outright. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon, the partner of the LAF in policing south Lebanon, has echoed Beirut, issuing a statement after the Blida attack that: "Such Israeli action north of the Blue Line (informal Israel-Lebanon border) represents a blatant violation of the Security Council Resolution 1701 and Lebanon’s sovereignty."

In addition to issuing warnings, Aoun and his associates assert they remain committed to enforcing the August Executive Order for the LAF to disarm Hezbollah in stages, beginning with the areas south of the Litani River. Lebanese leaders say the disarmament process will then proceed sequentially throughout the country, but at a pace intended to avoid setting off civil conflict between the LAF and Hezbollah. Prime Minister Salam said Thursday that Lebanon remained committed to completing at least the first stage of its Hezbollah disarmament plan — the area south of the Litani — by the end of the year.

Trump’s team — which strongly agrees with Israel’s insistence that Hezbollah be disarmed throughout Lebanon — has indicated the U.S. has leverage with which to push Beirut. Trump’s Ambassador to Türkiye, Tom Barrack, who also serves as an envoy on Lebanon, warned last week that Lebanon's slow progress on disarming Hezbollah could lead Israel to “act unilaterally” and launch another war on the country. His statement suggested, without stating directly, that Washington would “green light” further Israeli attacks if Beirut failed to make progress on Hezbollah’s disarmament. On Saturday, speaking at the annual Manama Dialogue Forum in Bahrain, Barrack stated that: “Thousands of (Hezbollah) rockets in southern Lebanon still threaten Israel.” He praised the Lebanese leadership for its steadfastness, but prodded Beirut to move faster to disarm Hezbollah.

The Trump team has also signaled that it has broader objectives beyond enforcing the November ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Reports indicate Trump aspires to forge diplomatic relations between Israel and Lebanon, including potentially bringing Beirut into the Abraham Accords under which several regional states have normalized relations with Israel. Failing that, Trump officials hope to broker an Israel-Lebanon agreement on a land border, following up on the sea border accord, mediated by Biden officials in 2022. During her visit, Ortagus proposed expanding the ceasefire monitoring committee's authority to cover all of Lebanon’s borders and suggested including diplomats as members. Echoing a similar theme, Barrack stated, “It's unreasonable that there is no dialogue between Israel and Lebanon. Israel is ready to reach a border agreement with Lebanon.” Lebanese leaders, through Arab and American intermediaries, have indicated they are open to gradual steps to build diplomatic ties to Israel, beginning with intelligence-sharing and coordination with Israel.

The U.S. and Israeli pressure on Beirut to disarm Hezbollah reflects evolving Israeli and Arab intelligence that Hezbollah is trying to rebuild its armaments and battered ranks. The reported efforts feed suspicions that the group has no intention of disarming or reconstituting itself as a purely political movement. The intelligence cited in major U.S. news reports, including the Wall Street Journal, shows Hezbollah restocking rockets, antitank missiles, and artillery, some of which are shipped from Iran by sea or through still functional smuggling routes through post-Assad Syria. Hezbollah is also expanding its ability to manufacture some new weapons itself. Israeli media have quoted Western intelligence officials as assessing that: “Hezbollah is rebuilding itself much faster than the Lebanese Army is dismantling its weapons.” Other reports suggest Israeli and U.S. frustration that their efforts in Lebanon have needed to shift, over the past few months, from Hezbollah’s disarmament to countering Hezbollah’s rearmament. During her visit to Lebanon last week, Ortagus pushed Beirut to not only accelerate Hezbollah disarmament but also to tighten border security to ensure Hezbollah is not able to smuggle in weapons.