November 17, 2025

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Prospects for a Divided Gaza Increase as Peace Plan Roadblocks Continue to Mount

AP Photo/Jehand Alshrafi

Visiting the region continuously since an Israel-Hamas ceasefire took effect on October 10, Trump officials are attempting to overcome impediments to implementing Trump’s plan for permanent peace, governance, and security in Gaza. Most of the initial phases of Trump’s 20 Point Plan for Gaza peace have been completed. Hamas has returned all 20 living Israeli hostages and has located and returned all but three of the 28 deceased Israelis. Israel has not reopened the southern border crossing at Rafah, which its forces control, but other aid channels have expanded at the behest of a U.S. military-run multilateral Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC) established last month. The CMCC has largely displaced Israel’s Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) as the key humanitarian aid facilitator for Gaza, and UN agencies and relief groups report that food markets in Gaza are better supplied. Israel has committed several ceasefire violations in response to Hamas attacks and what Israel claims were threats, but neither side has walked away from the truce or from discussions to complete the Trump peace plan. At the same time, associates of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have reportedly chafed at the control exercised by U.S. officials, arguing that Trump’s primary goal is to ensure the ceasefire does not unravel rather than ensuring Israel’s security against Hamas.

Yet the animosity between the warring sides, coupled with differing views among major stakeholders, has complicated the Trump team's efforts to secure agreement on the longer-term provisions of the Trump plan. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, an architect of the Gaza peace plan, was in Israel last week. Still, his mission primarily focused not on the broad outstanding issues but instead on resolving the fate of approximately 200 Hamas fighters trapped in the tunnel system in Rafah. The city lies entirely on the Israel-controlled side of the ceasefire line (“yellow line”). Kushner told journalists the U.S. has directed Israel not to attack the militants, adding that doing so would “detonate the ceasefire agreement and thus doom the Trump plan.” However, the Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Eyal Zamir, reflecting the views of Netanyahu and other Israeli officials, demanded the fighters “surrender or die.” Israel rejected suggestions from Arab mediators that the fighters be allowed to reintegrate into the Gaza population if they agreed to hand in their weapons. But the Israelis are also resisting a U.S. compromise proposal under which the Hamas fighters would be given safe passage and relocated to other countries in the region.

Even as the fate of the trapped Hamas fighters remains unresolved, Kushner and other Trump officials are trying to advance the Trump plan’s postwar provisions to reassure Netanyahu that the peace process — and not a restart of the war — will secure Israel’s objectives. Yet, the Trump team has a difficult task to restrain Netanyahu because Israeli officials assess Hamas is regrouping and asserting its authority in the 48 percent of Gaza territory the IDF has vacated — territory that contains the overwhelming majority of Gaza’s population of 2.1 million. Hamas has moved to reassert its authority by killing dozens of Palestinians it accused of collaborating with Israel, theft, or other crimes. Gazans tell journalists evidence of Hamas’ growing control includes its monitoring of goods coming into areas under its control, levying of fees on some privately imported goods such as fuel, and fining of merchants seen to be overcharging for goods. Ghaith al-Omari, an expert on Palestinian issues at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told journalists Hamas' actions aimed to show Gazans and foreign powers alike that it cannot be bypassed, adding: "The longer that the international community waits, the more entrenched Hamas becomes." Gaza City activist Mustafa Ibrahim said Hamas was exploiting delays in the Trump plan "to bolster its rule…Will it be allowed to continue doing so? I think it will continue until an alternative government is in place." Hamas’ reassertion of strength reinforces the Israeli view that Hamas has no intention of meeting the Trump plan requirements that it disarm or give up power.

Last week, U.S. officials sought to reassure Netanyahu that the Trump plan would overcome its challenge. Washington began circulating a draft UN Security Council resolution to establish the International Stabilization Force (ISF), which the Trump plan envisions as the key vehicle for preventing the war from restarting. The draft reportedly would be enacted under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which provides for a range of potential enforcement mechanisms, up to and including military means. A statement from the U.S. Mission to the UN said that the Trump administration has been working on the resolution for the past month, with input from Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The U.S. reportedly has made modifications to the draft to accommodate regional concerns, including clarifying that the Trump peace plan, when fully implemented, might set the conditions for “a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.” The updated draft reportedly adds that “The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous coexistence.”

Apparently securing the support of most major stakeholders, on Friday the following joint statement was issued: "The United States, Qatar, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Jordan, and Türkiye express our joint support for the Security Council Resolution currently under consideration," adding they were seeking the measure's "swift adoption." However, the draft continued to face opposition from Russia, China and some Arab countries, arguing the Trump-chaired “Board of Peace” which would temporarily help govern the territory, lacked a provision for the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority to play a role in the Gaza transition. Russia has submitted a competing draft which omits any reference to formal international supervision over Gaza’s postwar government, but it is unclear whether Moscow’s proposal will receive serious consideration when the Council debates the drafts on Monday.

Even if the U.S. draft is adopted, it is not clear whether Washington will overcome the obstacles to recruiting troop donations to the proposed ISF. The U.S. draft provides that as the ISF “establishes control and stability,” the Israeli military will withdraw from the Gaza Strip in stages based on “standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization and agreed” by Israel, the ISF, the U.S., and others. But the U.S. draft does not address the key concerns expressed by potential donors to the force, such as Türkiye, several Arab states, Indonesia, and others, that their forces might be drawn into combat with Hamas militia fighters who refuse to disarm. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sought to assuage those concerns last week by stating the ISF “…shouldn’t be a fighting force.” Rubio expressed confidence that Hamas would not confront ISF troops, stating, “As far as demilitarization is concerned. That’s a commitment Hamas made. That’s a commitment all of our partners on this deal made, and we expect that those countries…bring about pressure on Hamas to live up to that commitment.” Still, it was unclear whether U.S. assurances would assuage doubts among donor-state leaders who envision the ISF mission as limited to securing Gaza’s borders, distributing aid, and performing day-to-day basic security functions without significant combat. One key force donor the Trump team has long counted on, the UAE, said last week it does not yet see a clear framework for the proposed stabilization force in Gaza and, under the current circumstances, would not participate.

Amid the hurdles to implementing the Trump peace plan, U.S. and Israeli officials appear to believe an alternate approach to stabilizing Gaza and sidelining Hamas might be possible. Their alternative builds on classic counter-insurgency theory, outlining a “clear, hold, and build” approach that protects the civilian population and deprives an insurgent force of support. Under this alternate strategy, which appears to be favored by some members of the Trump and Netanyahu teams, the ISF would deploy in the Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza, paving the way for a gradual Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction to begin in those areas. A government of non-Hamas technocrats would govern the stabilized cities and towns of Gaza, and progressively extend influence into Hamas-controlled sections of the enclave, displacing Hamas. Some U.S. officials assess that secured areas undergoing reconstruction will attract Gaza civilians to relocate, leaving Hamas in control of progressively smaller percentages of the population, pressuring Hamas’ militia to disband outright.

Yet, the potential emergence of “two Gazas” has bred public skepticism of U.S. and Israeli intent. Last week, the Guardian claimed to possess “leaked” documents indicating Trump’s team might view a permanently divided Gaza emerging as the most likely scenario. The paper reported Washington is preparing to entrench Israeli control along the “yellow line” (ceasefire line), instead of restoring Palestinian unity or full Israeli withdrawal from the entire Strip. Another news agency, Reuters, corroborated the Guardian report, citing multiple sources as saying Gaza's de facto partition appeared increasingly likely, with Israeli forces still deployed in more than half the territory and efforts to advance the plan faltering.