May 20, 2025

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Challenges Persist as Trump Redefines the U.S. Role in the Middle East

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

In speeches and statements during his visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last week, President Donald Trump sought to redefine the U.S. role in the Middle East from security guarantor and armed intervener to economic and technology partner. He signaled he would not continue U.S. efforts to pressure the rulers in the Middle East to uphold internationally recognized standards of human rights practices. Heralding the signing during the trip of $2 trillion in total agreements for the three countries to invest in the U.S. or buy U.S. goods, Trump explicitly stated a U.S. intent to seek cooperation based “on commerce, not chaos.” The intent of Trump’s focus on economic cooperation was not only to attract more high-technology manufacturing to the U.S., but also to ensure that Gulf leaders partner with the U.S., rather than China, in developing artificial intelligence (AI) and other technology infrastructure.

Trump’s redefinition of the U.S. role in the Middle East contrasts sharply with that of a key ally, Israel, which has been a key beneficiary of the historic U.S. role as the region’s ultimate security guarantor. Through its military actions since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has demonstrated that Israel seeks, first and foremost, to shift the regional balance of power in its favor and control key terrain from which adversaries can threaten Israeli civilians. Netanyahu argues that, rather than compromise with Tehran, Trump should take advantage of Iran’s weakness to militarily destroy any nuclear facilities that Tehran might use to develop a nuclear weapon. Israeli leaders did not applaud Trump’s outreach to Iran during the visit, including his declaration that the U.S. has no “permanent enemies” and his promises to provide substantial sanctions relief in a new Iran nuclear deal. In Qatar on Thursday, Trump stated, “I want [Iran] to succeed, I want [Iran] to end up being a great country” as a result of a new agreement. Israel believes extensive sanctions relief will enable Tehran to rebuild its Axis of Resistance and shift the regional balance of power back toward Iran. Yet, Trump’s outreach to Iran resonated with the leaders he visited, all of whom have been improving relations with the Islamic Republic. The Gulf leaders want to focus, as Trump does, on economic diversification and technological progress, rather than risk another regional war in which the Gulf states might become targets of Tehran’s retaliation.

During his visit, Trump also sought to reorient the U.S. role in the region from overseer, and sometimes the determiner, of the internal policies of Mideast leaders. Although without explicitly mentioning the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, he denounced past U.S. interventions to remove authoritarian leaders from power or carry out “nation-building” missions. In his keynote address to a Tuesday investment conference in Riyadh, Trump stated: “In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built…And the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand.” In his keynote address to a Saudi investment forum, Trump highlighted the Kingdom’s vibrant economic transformation, noting: “It’s crucial for the wider world to note this great transformation has not come from Western interventionists or flying people in beautiful planes, giving you lectures on how to live and how to govern your own affairs.”

Trump’s statements were intended to signal that the Trump administration would not condition its relationship with regional leaders based on reforms of their internal political systems or their human rights record. However, opposition and human rights activists throughout the region, and globally, expressed concern that regional leaders would interpret a U.S. pullback from its role as a powerful advocate for human rights around the world as a “green light” to further sideline dissenters and silence critical domestic commentary. No Gulf leader welcomed Trump’s comments more than Saudi de-facto leader Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), who was ostracized by U.S. leaders for several years for his role in the killing of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. None of the officials in Trump’s delegation indicated that Trump and MBS discussed that assassination during the Saudi stop.

Many experts viewed Trump’s announcement in Saudi Arabia that he would lift U.S. sanctions on Syria, and his meeting there with the interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former Islamist militia leader, as a significant strategic breakthrough for the U.S. as well as its regional partners. Trump characterized the announcement, which some aides opposed as premature until the post-Assad government’s intent and behavior become clearer, as giving Syria a “fresh start” to recover economically from the decade of civil war. Trump credited MBS and Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an for influencing his decision, which the two leaders see as critical to Syria’s chance of survival as a country. Still, U.S. sanctions on Syria have been imposed under numerous different legal authorities, including laws passed by Congress, such as the Caesar Civilian Protection Act. Explaining the process by which Trump’s decision would be implemented, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump would initially use waiver authority provided by the Caesar law, although the waiver would need to be renewed every 180 days. Rubio added: “Ultimately, if we make enough progress, we'd like to see the law repealed because you're going to struggle to find people to invest in a country when in six months, sanctions could come back…We're not there yet. That's premature. I think we want to start with the initial waiver, which will allow foreign partners who wanted to flow in aid to begin to do so without running the risk of sanctions. I think as we make progress, hopefully we'll be in a position soon, or one day, to go to Congress and ask them to permanently remove the sanctions."

But, Trump’s business-oriented visit barely addressed, let alone resolved, all of the region’s outstanding challenges, particularly the war in Gaza. There had been widespread hope that Trump’s trip could increase the chances of a Gaza ceasefire deal or the resumption of humanitarian aid to the enclave, which Israel has prevented for more than two months. Speaking to reporters in Abu Dhabi on the final day of his trip, Trump said he was looking to resolve a range of global crises, saying: “We’re looking at Gaza…And we’ve got to get that taken care of. A lot of people are starving. A lot of people are — there’s a lot of bad things going on.” In an address during a state banquet for Trump on Wednesday, Qatar’s Amir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, whose government has been a key mediator in Gaza, called for urgent diplomatic efforts to secure another ceasefire. The Amir stated “Time is short” for the civilians and remaining Israeli hostages in the enclave. But, even though Trump’s envoy for the Middle East Steven Witkoff was part of his delegation during the early part of the trip, there was no evident progress toward a truce. And, throughout the visit, Israeli combat aircraft struck targets in Gaza in preparation for an expanded ground offensive there which Israel threatened if Trump’s meetings in the region produced no ceasefire breakthrough. As he threatened, Netanyahu proceeded with the “Gideon’s Chariot” operation in many parts of Gaza as soon as Trump returned to Washington early Saturday morning.

The lack of progress on Gaza precluded Trump from advancing a broader diplomatic ambition for the trip – his stated “fervent wish” that Saudi Arabia would follow the UAE and Bahrain to recognize Israel and join the “Abraham Accords.” Saudi officials have said they would consider that step only after the establishment of a Palestinian state, although some experts believe that an end to the Gaza war might satisfy the Saudi condition. Even though neither MBS nor Amir Tamim of Qatar indicated they would soon join the Abraham Accords, both leaders also seemed to mute their criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, perhaps in order not to provoke an open debate on the U.S. alliance with Israel while Trump was visiting.

And, despite Trump’s outreach toward Iran, Tehran’s ally in Yemen, the Houthi movement (Ansarallah), launched missiles at Tel Aviv on at least two occasions while Trump was in the Gulf. The volleys came despite a U.S.-Houthi ceasefire that was agreed in the days prior to Trump’s departure for the region. Friday, Trump’s last day in the region, Israel retaliated by striking three Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen - Hodeidah, al-Salif, and Ras Issa. Even though the exchanges did not involve the U.S., the violence stepped on Trump’s messaging that he could calm the region through economic and business interactions as well as diplomacy. The Houthis’ intent to continue attacking Israel as long as the Gaza conflict persists appeared to receive little discussion in Trump’s meetings with MBS and UAE President Mohammad bin Zayid al-Nahyan (MBZ), the leaders of the Arab coalition that actively fought the Houthis from 2015 until a ceasefire was agreed in 2022.