June 17, 2025

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Conflict Continues to Rage Between Iran and Israel and Casualties Mount

AP Photo

The conflict between Israel and Iran has continued to escalate, with Israel now claiming complete aerial superiority over western Iran, including Tehran, after eliminating Iranian missile launchers and surface-to-air missiles. In both the April and October exchanges last year, Israel targeted Iranian air defense systems, including in the October attack, four S-300 systems, according to Israel’s then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered remarks as he visited the Tel Nof airbase in central Israel with Defense Minister Israel Katz and Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Eyal Zamir, according to the Israeli media: “We are on our way to achieving our two objectives: eliminating the nuclear threat and eliminating the missile threat,” he said. In the current round of fighting, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief spokesperson Effie Defrin stated that Israel believes it has taken out approximately one-third of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers. Israel also claims to have hit the command center of Iran’s elite paramilitary unit, the IRGC Quds Force.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened residents of Tehran, urging them to evacuate, as the Israelis pursue targets in the densely populated capital city home to nearly 10 million people. On Monday, the IDF formally issued an evacuation warning to residents of Tehran’s Third District and shortly thereafter, commenced bombing the area, claiming it was targeting the Iranian regime’s military infrastructure. Israel also attacked the headquarters of Iran’s state broadcaster in Tehran while it was live on air. Going after the television and radio stations marks a significant shift — perhaps signaling a move toward openly targeting not just civilian infrastructure, but also key regime assets. In most coups or regime-change operations, one of the first objectives is to disable state-run media. The Israelis could be looking to create new opportunities for opposition media, particularly those based outside Iran, to expand their reach and influence within Iran. It is expected that Iran will react harshly to the attack on its television and media. Israel’s strike suggests it may now be laying the groundwork for a broader regime-change strategy. Indeed, speaking yesterday, Netanyahu said that if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is assassinated, it will “help end the conflict,” and “make the Middle East great again,” in a clear appeal to the Trump administration.

There have also been reports suggesting that U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his opposition to the targeting of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Trump, for his part, is still hoping that the Iranians will come back to the negotiating table and that an Iran nuclear deal is still a possibility. One question is whether the Iranians would commit to “zero enrichment” in order to secure a ceasefire and put an end to the Israeli onslaught decimating its leadership and pummeling the country’s infrastructure, including its energy facilities. The Israeli air campaign is its main thrust at the moment, which the United States is attempting to frame as a component of coercive diplomacy. The search for a credible interlocutor trusted by both sides could prove elusive. The European Union says Russia has “zero credibility” as a potential mediator between Iran and Israel, after Trump suggested yesterday that Putin could play a role. “There has been a recent Russia-Iran partnership agreement, which signals deepening cooperation across multiple areas, including foreign policy and defense,” EU spokesman Anouar El Anouni said.

The Israelis appear to be following the “Hezbollah model” in their approach to dealing with Iran. To date, Israel has killed the intelligence chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammed Kazemi, as well as his deputy, Hassan Mohaqiq. This comes on top of the targeted assassination of Iran’s military and intelligence leadership structure, including Mohammad Bagheri, the commander-in-chief of Iran’s military and the second highest commander after Khamenei; Gholamali Rashid, deputy commander-in-chief of Iran’s armed forces; Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of IRGC; and Esmail Qaani, head of the IRGC Quds Force (QF). Iran has reportedly named Ahmad Vahidi as the new head of the IRGC, known for his role in the Argentina AMIA bombing in the early 1990s. Still, ending the conflict will be difficult, and it remains unclear what Israel’s ultimate war aims are. While Netanyahu has spoken of dismantling Iran’s entire nuclear infrastructure, given that some aspects of the program are considered hard and deeply buried targets, this may not be possible. The best Israel can reasonably hope for is setting the program back several years. But if the conflict drags on and Israel is still searching for targets, there may be growing pressure on Netanyahu to push for regime change. Put simply, regime change has not worked well in any of the countries where it has been orchestrated, from Iraq to Libya.

As of Monday morning, Iran’s Health Ministry claims that 224 civilians had been killed, while Israel is claiming that 24 of its citizens have been killed in the fighting. Iranians are attempting to flee Tehran and other large cities in search for safety. Iran lacks modern bomb shelters, like those in Israel, and many civilians are voicing frustrations. Many civilians are taking to sheltering in basements, the metro, underground tunnels, and older shelters from the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. The government has also stated that schools and mosques will be open as shelters, underlining how soft targets, cultural heritage, and the protection of civilians are often inextricably linked in conflict.

Further, it remains to be seen if Iran will seek to engage in gray zone activities, including cyberattacks. On Monday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Office reported an increased frequency of electronic interference in ships’ ability to communicate their positions in the Gulf of Hormuz. Last year, intelligence services from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom each warned about Iran’s growing cyber capabilities and expressed concern that Iran-backed hackers could move to attack critical infrastructure, industrial targets, and/or supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. Both Israel and Iran have been targeting the other’s energy infrastructure. Israel’s Haifa-based Bazan Group reported that all refinery facilities have been shut down following significant damage by an Iranian attack, including a power station used to produce steam and electricity. The company said that the attack resulted in three employees dead. Iran reported that Israeli airstrikes had targeted some of the country’s most vital oil and gas facilities, threatening turmoil for the markets.

Both sides have engaged in tit-for-tat retaliation, as each side maneuvers within shifting rules of engagement, seeking to restore deterrence and gain the upper hand. To bolster Israeli deterrence, the United States is sending an additional aircraft carrier to the region as well as more aircraft to Europe, as the conflict continues to escalate. Trump left the G-7 meeting in Canada early, and headed back to the United States. He posted on his social media platform Truth Social, "Iran should have signed the 'deal' I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!" Israel and Iran continued to exchange fire throughout the night and into the early morning hours, as many nations called for their citizens to leave the region. A diplomatic offramp still exists, and Trump has encouraged Vice President JD Vance and Middle East Special Envoy Steven Witkoff to travel to Iran this week to resuscitate negotiations. However, the window for conflict resolution is closing rapidly, as casualties on both sides continue to mount.