July 7, 2025

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Trump and Netanyahu Try to Align After the Israel-Iran War

AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi

President Trump will host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House today in an effort to translate the perceived success of an Israel-U.S. military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program into broader diplomatic breakthroughs for the region. The two leaders will discuss their way forward to ensure Iran remains a non-nuclear state, but Iran will likely constitute a minor part of Netanyahu’s meetings with Trump and other senior U.S. officials. By all accounts, Trump hopes to announce during the Netanyahu meeting that another Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement has been finalized. Reports indicate that he also hopes the visit will produce U.S.-Israel alignment on a way forward regarding Iran, modest agreements between Israel and Syria, and potentially a roadmap for additional states to join the Arab-Israeli normalization pacts known as the Abraham Accords.

Although Trump and his team have broad objectives, they are sure to consider the Netanyahu invitation unsuccessful if Trump cannot announce a final agreement on a 60-day ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza during the visit. Achieving an agreement before Netanyahu’s arrival is the focus of intense negotiations by U.S Special Middle East Steve Witkoff and senior officials in Qatar and Egypt. Witkoff and his counterparts assess that the setbacks to Iran’s nuclear program and its Axis of Resistance over the past year open up opportunities for a Gaza breakthrough that did not exist prior to Israel’s attack twelve days of attacks on Iran in June. Mediators assess that Netanyahu has more leverage to agree to a peace deal over the objections of far-right members in his Cabinet, because he is experiencing a boost in popularity following the Iran war. Arab diplomats argue that Hamas might feel it has “no choice” but to accept a deal that falls short of its demand for a guarantee that the war will end. Hesham Youssef, a retired Egyptian diplomat, adds: “The Arab world is weak and not supporting [Hamas] to get something better, and because also the suffering reached a level that has become unbearable. And, of course. because they [Hamas] have become much, much weaker.”

Yet, finalizing a truce might depend not only on the details of a temporary ceasefire, but more significantly on the plan’s vision for postwar governance and security in Gaza. The formal draft ceasefire proposal presented to Hamas, which has appeared in Israeli media, largely reworks past offers for a 60-day ceasefire, providing for ten Israeli living and 18 deceased hostages to be released, and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners to be freed. Other, unofficial portions of the proposal — not included in the formal draft — address the “day after” in Gaza, including a framework for non-Hamas Palestinians, backed by Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, to govern Gaza. A force drawn from some of these countries would secure Gaza on an interim basis, assisted by U.S. security contractors, U.S. logistical and command-and-control support from a base in Egypt. A UAE proposal addresses longer-term security arrangements, providing for the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA), backed by several Arab states, the U.S., and European nations, to recruit and train a non-Hamas Palestinian force.  The UAE plan offers an inducement to Netanyahu to accept a PA-run Gaza – a concept he has repeatedly rejected – by providing for a “reformed” PA led by a “new, credible, independent and empowered prime minister.” Saudi and Emirati officials have stressed in recent months that unless Netanyahu accepts a role for the PA in Gaza, his hopes for normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia won’t be fulfilled.

Yet, significant hurdles remain to finalizing a Gaza deal before Netanyahu’s arrival in Washington. The proposals offered provide for a phased pullback of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops in Gaza, but do not clearly commit to a permanent end to the war. Israeli officials have made clear their view that the ceasefire under consideration gives them options to continue fighting – a provision that has drawn objections from hardliners within Hamas. Among the more militant Hamas figures, many of whom will be influential in Hamas’ decision whether to accept the proposal, is Izz al-Din al-Haddad, who Middle East intelligence officials say took over Hamas’ military wing in Gaza after Israeli forces killed Muhammad Sinwar, the brother of the October 7 architect Yahya Sinwar, in May. Haddad is believed to be firmly opposed to any postwar plan that dislodges Hamas from power or attempts to ensure the group is disarmed. On Friday, Hamas delivered a response to Egyptian and Qatari mediators, the movement described as “in a positive spirit,” adding in a statement that the group is “fully prepared, with all seriousness, to immediately enter a new round of negotiations on the mechanism for implementing this framework." However, Netanyahu’s office stated over the weekend that Hamas’ proposed amendments to the U.S.-Egypt-Qatar ceasefire proposal were “unacceptable,” including a clear commitment that negotiations will continue until there is an agreement to end the war permanently. Still, Israel sent its negotiators to Doha to continue to try to achieve a deal that Trump can announce.

Although Trump and Netanyahu might present a united front on Gaza, there is potential for disagreements over Iran to tarnish the Netanyahu visit. Since announcing the Iran-Israel ceasefire on June 25, Trump has sought to induce Tehran to resume the U.S.-Iran talks that preceded the warfare. Trump officials assess that only a diplomatic agreement can ensure Iran does not rebuild its nuclear program, and Trump reportedly wants Netanyahu’s backing for new U.S.-Iran talks, if Iran agrees to resume the diplomacy. Some reports indicate U.S.-Iran talks might reconvene as early as later this week. Netanyahu’s government, by contrast, doubts Iran will accept U.S. demands to eliminate its uranium enrichment program and seeks Trump’s support for further Israeli military action to derail any Iranian attempt to reconstitute its program. Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz has described Israel’s policy as “aggressive containment” — responding with military force whenever it identifies a suspect site or suspicious activity. Netanyahu might also seek Trump’s support for heavier munitions and strategic bomber aircraft to deliver them, in order to enable Israel to undertake military action that Trump wants the U.S. itself to avoid. Whether Trump would respond positively to that request is unclear.

A number of reports indicate Trump hopes to be able to announce a Syria-Israel diplomatic breakthrough today as well, including a deal to defuse Israel’s military operations in southern Syria.  According to Trump’s Ambassador to Türkiye, Tom Barrack, who serves concurrently as a special envoy for Syria, Israel and Syria are engaged in U.S.-mediated “meaningful” talks to restore calm along their border, particularly the frontier along the Israel-occupied Golan Heights. The Islamist-led new government in Damascus has signaled a willingness to compromise with Israel in part as a response to Trump’s lifting of decades-long U.S. sanctions on Syria. On Friday, the Syrian government announced it is prepared to cooperate with the United States in restoring the 1974 disengagement agreement with Israel, in what would mark a pivotal development in regional diplomacy following years of confrontation and military tension along the Syrian-Israeli border. Trump aides have optimistically predicted that, over the longer term, Syria might join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel, putting behind the country decades of alignment with Tehran and hardline Arab and other Islamist militant factions.

Expanding the Accords — and in particular persuading the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to join the pact — is a core Trump goal. It will no doubt receive discussion in Netanyahu’s meetings with Trump and other U.S. officials this week. One UAE official summed up the thinking of not only his government but also the Trump team as well, telling journalists Netanyahu should “…think about winning the long game, which is integration and acceptance in our region. That’s our advice to the Israelis.” Although there is broad recognition among U.S. officials that the Kingdom and other Arab states cannot move toward normalizing relations with Israel as long as the Gaza conflict rages, U.S. officials nonetheless hope to promote that outcome as soon as conditions turn more favorable. Last Thursday, according to multiple sources, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman (KBS) — brother of Saudi de-facto leader Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) — secretly met with Trump and other key While House officials to discuss de-escalation with Iran, ending the war in Gaza, and working toward a broad peace in the Middle East. Although the KBS-Trump talks were not limited to the possibility of normalization with Israel, sources told journalists the conversation dealt with steps that needed to occur to achieve that objective, adding: "there was progress and optimism on all fronts." Still, any resumption of Israel-Iran or U.S.-Iran conflict, or failure to end the war in Gaza, will derail Trump’s attempts to accomplish transformative diplomacy for the region.